The University of Southampton
Courses

MATH6011 Forecasting

Module Overview

The module will introduce students to time series models and associated forecasting methods.

Aims and Objectives

Module Aims

• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods; • show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data; • give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting; • convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..

Learning Outcomes

Knowledge and Understanding

Having successfully completed this module, you will be able to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of:

  • Formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions
  • Use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data
  • Appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques
Subject Specific Practical Skills

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

  • Produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution

Syllabus

Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models

Learning and Teaching

TypeHours
Independent Study59
Teaching16
Total study time75

Resources & Reading list

Gilchrist, W.G. (1976). Statistical Forecasting. 

Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression Abalysis. 

Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (1994). An Introduction to Management Science. 

Janert, P.K. (2011). Data Analysis with Open Source Tools. 

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications. 

Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (2012). Forecasting: principles and practice. 

Wetherill, GB. (1981). Intermediate Statistical Methods. 

Assessment

Summative

MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%

Referral

MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%

Costs

Costs associated with this module

Students are responsible for meeting the cost of essential textbooks, and of producing such essays, assignments, laboratory reports and dissertations as are required to fulfil the academic requirements for each programme of study.

In addition to this, students registered for this module typically also have to pay for:

Books and Stationery equipment

Course texts are provided by the library and there are no additional compulsory costs associated with the module

Please also ensure you read the section on additional costs in the University’s Fees, Charges and Expenses Regulations in the University Calendar available at www.calendar.soton.ac.uk.

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