Southampton Management School, University of Southampton

I was awarded a first class honours degree in Mathematics and Management Science from the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology. I then joined a Lloyd's insurance broker (Stewart Wrightson) where I worked as a risk financing and assessment executive. I completed examinations for the Associateship of the Chartered Insurance Institute and was awarded the Lloyds Insurance Brokers Association Prize for outstanding performance in the qualifying examinations. Subsequently, I took up the post of Stewart Wrightson Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham, where I explored various aspects of risk assessment. After two years I became a lecturer in Management at the University of Nottingham and in 1988 a lecturer in Management Science at the University of Southampton.

In 1990 I established the Centre for Risk Research, in the Southampton Management School 'to encourage a deeper appreciation of the nature of risk, to develop approaches to its analysis, and to assist organisations in effectively managing risk'. My PhD, titled: 'Decision-Making in a Risky Environment: Insights from the UK Horserace Betting Market', was awarded in 1997.

Also in 1997, I was elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications and awarded the title Chartered Mathematician. In 1998 I was awarded a personal chair in 'Decision and Risk Analysis' by the University of Southampton.

I am currently Director of the Centre for Risk Research at the University of Southampton, on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Gambling, Business and Economics. Member of the European Association for the Study of Gambling, Member of the European Association of Decision Making, Member of the International Association for Research in Econmoic Psychology and Member of the Society for the Study of Gambling.

I have a particular interest in developing effective, interactive teaching methods and I have been awarded (a) the National Partnership Trust Award for "innovation and development in higher education within the UK", (b) awarded the 'Dean's Teaching and Learning' prize for most outstanding teacher on the MBA programmes at City University Business School, where I provide guest lectures in Managerial Decision-Making and (c) voted 'lecturer of the Semester' by University of Southampton students. My teaching is currently focussed in the areas of Management and Organisation and Managerial Decision-Making. I also direct outdoor management development courses (the Longmoor Challenge), which are designed to develop team building, risk taking/risk management skills and organisational skills.

My research has focussed on risk taking and decision-making in naturalistic environments. In particular I have explored the following areas:

• Differences in decision-making/risk taking behaviour between laboratory and naturalistic settings and between naive and experienced decision-makers.
• The motivation for engaging in risk taking in real world settings.
• Gender differences in decisions made under risk.
• Violations of rational economic behaviour in a naturalistic risk environment.
• The impact of complexity on voluntary participation, risk strategy and decision performance in real world settings.
• Inefficiency and decision-making biases in markets for state contingent claims.
• Factors influencing the degree of calibration of subjective probability judgements.

Work in progress

I currently hold the following awards (a)£100,481: to develop mathematical models for forecasting uncertainty (b) £115,000: to explore the efficiency of sports betting markets (c) £ 29,000: to explore the impact of cognitive biases on information-based trading strategies in a competitive environment and (d) £48,500: to examine outcome prediction in traditional and speculative financial markets. I was also recently successful in securing funding and a place on the Hamburg University /University of Southampton staff exchange programme (2010/11). This will involve conducting research with the Institute of Information Systems at the University of Hamburg on using machine learning methods to predict successful traders in financial markets. In addition, my current research interests include: Subjective probability assessment, irrational behaviour in financial markets, the manner in which various categories of information are employed in making risky decisions. Decision making in, and efficiency of, sports betting markets. I currently supervise five PhD students whose research focuses on 'semi-strong efficiency of football betting markets', 'information-based trading strategies in a competitive environment', . 'similarities in investment strategies between agents in financial and betting markets', 'The implications of market efficiency on institutional decision making'and 'Biased decision-making in a naturalistic environment: Implications for forecasts of competitive events'.
My research has focussed on risk taking and decision-making in naturalistic environments. In particular I have explored the following areas:

• Differences in decision-making/risk taking behaviour between laboratory and naturalistic settings and between naive and experienced decision-makers.
• The motivation for engaging in risk taking in real world settings.
• Gender differences in decisions made under risk.
• Violations of rational economic behaviour in a naturalistic risk environment.
• The impact of complexity on voluntary participation, risk strategy and decision performance in real world settings.
• Inefficiency and decision-making biases in markets for state contingent claims.
• Factors influencing the degree of calibration of subjective probability judgements.

Primary research group:  Centre for Risk Research

Affiliate research group:  CORMSIS: Centre for Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems