Southampton Management School

Ming-Chien Sung

PhD

Primary position:
Senior Lecturer, Director of MSc in Risk Management, Director of MSc in Corporate Risk & Security Management

Ming-Chien Sung was appointed as a lecturer in Management Science in August 2007. She was awarded her MSc in Accounting and Finance in 2001 and her PhD, titled: Searching for Information Inefficiency: Empirical Evidence from the U.K. Bookmaker-based Horserace Betting Market, in June 2006 from the University of Southampton. Subsequently, she took up the post of Research Fellow at the Centre for Risk Research for one year where she explored the efficiency of speculative financial markets. Prior to her MSc and PhD, she worked in the Finance sector for 7 years. She is a Visiting Scholar at Academia Sinica in Taipei, Taiwan (2008). She is also a visiting scholar at the University of Hamburg, Germany (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010). She was awarded Postgraduate Certificate in Academic Practice in 2009. She is a member of Economic Science Association, International Institute of Forecasters and a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy. She is also a member of the Editorial Board of Economic Issues.

Dr Ming-Chien Sung's photo

The University of Southampton's electronic library (e-prints)

Article

Sung, M. and Lessmann, Stefan (2012) Save the best for last? The treatment of dominant predictors in financial forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications (In Press)
Tan, Hui-Boon, Cheah, Eng-Tuck, Johnson, Johnnie E.V., Sung, M. and Chuah, Chong-Hin (2012) Stock market capitalization and financial integration in the Asia Pacific region. Applied Economics, 44, (15), 1951-1961. (doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.556593)
Lessmann, S., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 62, 2120-2132. (doi:10.1057/jors.2010.192)
Cheah, Eng-Tuck, Jamali, Dima, Johnson, J.E.V. and Sung, M. (2011) Drivers of corporate social responsibility attitudes: the demography of socially responsible investors. British Journal of Management, 22, (2), 305-323.
Lessmann, Stefan, Sung, M., Ma, Tiejun and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction. European Journal of Operations Research(doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.032) (In Press)
Lessmann, Stefan, Sung, M. and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2010) Alternative methods of predicting competitive events: an application in horserace betting markets. [in special issue: Sports Forecasting] International Journal of Forecasting, 26, (3), 518-536. (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.013)
Johnson, J.E.V., O'Brien, R. and Sung, M. (2010) Assessing bettors' ability to process dynamic information: Policy implications. Southern Economic Journal, 76, (4), 906-931. (doi: 10.4284/sej.2010.76.4.906)
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2010) Revealing weak-form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims: The importance of market ecology, modelling procedures and investment strategies. Economica, 77, (305), 128-147. (doi:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00716.x)
Sung, M., Johnson, J.E.V. and Dror, I. (2009) Complexity as a guide to understanding decision bias: A contribution to the favorite-longshot bias debate. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, (3), 318-337. (DOI: 10.1002/bdm.629)
Lessmann, Stefan, Sung, M. and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2009) Identifying winners of competitive events: A SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction. European Journal of Operational Research, 196, (2), 569-577. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2008.03.018)
Wu, Shih-Weh, Johnson, Johnnie E.V. and Sung, M. (2008) Overconfidence in judgements: the evidence, the implications and the limitations. Journal of Prediction Markets, 2, (1), 73-90.
Lessmann, Stefan, Sung, M. and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2007) Adapting least-square support vector regression models to forecast the outcome of horseraces. Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, (3), 169-187.
Johnson, J.E.V. and Sung, M. (2007) Comparing the effectiveness of one- and two-step conditional logit models for predicting outcomes in a speculative market. Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, (1), 43-59.

Book Section

Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) Revealing weak-form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims: the importance of market ecology, modelling procedures and investment strategies. In, Williams, Leighton Vaughan (ed.) The Economics of Gambling and National Lotteries. Cheltenham, GB, Edward Elgar Collection Series. (In Press)
McDonald, David, Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) Evidence of biased behaviour in betting markets. In, The Economics of Gambling. Oxford, GB, Oxford University Press. (In Press)
Sung, M. and Johnson, Johnnie (2008) Semi-strong form efficiency in the horserace betting market. In, Hausch, Donald and Ziemba, W.T. (eds.) Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets. , Elsevier, 275-306.

Conference or Workshop Item

McDonald, David, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2011) The effects of increased volatility and herding behavior on the efficiency of a speculative financial market. In, The 19th Conference on the Theories and Practices of Securities and Financial Markets, Kaohsiung City, TW, 09 - 10 Dec 2011.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) Insights into decision-making behaviour from horserace betting markets: unearthing inefficiency in an efficient market. Macao Gaming Teaching and Research Centre Invited Seminar Series,
McDonald, David, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2011) Exploring the degree of predecisional bias displayed by participants in a speculative financial market. In, Business and Economics Society International Conference, Split, HR, 06 - 09 Jul 2011.
McDonald, D., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2011) Favourite-longshot bias in competing betting markets. In, International Conference on Gambling Studies, Nottingham, GB, 03 - 05 Apr 2011. 35pp.
McDonald, David, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie (2010) Modelling predecisional bias in a speculative financial market. In, EURO XXIV- 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Lisbon, PT, 11 - 14 Jul 2010.
Johnson, Johnnie., O'Brien, Raymond. and Sung, Ming-Chien. (2010) Modelling the manner in which sporadically changing information is accounted for by traders in a betting market. In, International Conference on Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management (MS 2010), Barcelona, Spain, 15 - 17 Jul 2010.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J. E. V. (2010) The development of profitable forecasts of outcomes using data in a speculative financial market: evidence from the uk horserace betting market. In, 30th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, CA, USA, 20 - 23 Jun 2010.
Johnson, Johnnie, OBrien, Ray'mond and Sung, M. (2010) An exploration of the forecasting ability of traders in a financial market in the face of sporadically changing information. In, 30th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, USA, 20 - 23 Jun 2010.
Tan, H.-B., Cheah, E.-T., Johnson, J.E.V. and Sung, M. (2010) The dynamic stock market capitalization integration in the Asia Pacific region. In, European Financial Management Symposium, Beijing, China, 22 - 24 Apr 2010.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J. E. V. (2010) The importance of methodology for assessing the degree of efficiency in a global speculative financial market. In, 20th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, 23 - 26 May 2010.
Johnson, Johnnie, O'Brien, Raymond and Sung, M. (2010) An assessment of the degree to which speculative financial market traders account for sporadically changing information. In, 20th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association,, Las Vegas, USA, 23 - 26 May 2010.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J. E. V. (2010) Modelling competitive events to explore market inefficiency: Evidence from the UK horserace betting market. In, International Conference on Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management (MS'2010), Barcelona, Spain, 15 - 17 Jul 2010. University of Barcelona.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2009) An exploration of profitable betting strategies based on knowledge of the proportion of informed and noise traders operating in a horserace betting market. In, Business & Economics Society International 2009 Hawaii-USA Conference, Kona, Hawaii, USA, 15 - 19 Jul 2009.
Johnson, J.E.V., O'Brien, R. and Sung, M. (2009) An examination of the manner in which evolving information is accounted for by traders in a financial market. In, The 2009 B&ESI Conference in Global Business & Economics Anthology, Hawaii, US, 15 - 19 Jul 2009.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J. E. V. (2009) An exploration of the comparative performance of informed and noise traders in the uk horserace betting market. In, The 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, Nevada, US, 25 - 29 May 2009.
McDonald, D.C.J., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2009) A reinterpretation of the favourite-longshot bias: estimating the winning probabilities of strong favourites. In, The 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, Reno, USA, 25 - 29 May 2009.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2008) Forecasting market inefficiency via an analysis of the composition of traders in a market for state contingent claims. In, 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting Conference, Nice , France, 22 - 25 Jun 2008. ISF 2008.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2008) Toward an understanding of variations in the nature of betting market populations via an exploration of the 'weekend effect' in a horserace betting markets. In, The 7th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues, Nova Gorica, Slovenia, 01 - 04 Jul 2008. Nova Gorica: Slovenia,
Sung, M. and Johnson, J (2008) An examination of the impact of biased decisions of noise traders on market efficiency during holiday periods in speculative markets. In, International Academy of Business and Economics (IABE-2008), Las Vegas, USA, 19 - 22 Oct 2008. International Academy of Business and Economics.
Johnson, J.E.V., Sung, M. and O'Brien, R. (2008) The reliability of subjective probability judgements in the face of evolving and sporadically changing information in a betting market: Policy implications. In, Symposium of Southern Economic Journal: Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy, Nottingham, UK, Sep 2008. Nottingham Trent University.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2007) Evidence of a weak form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims. Profitable trading on a day of the week effect. In, 15th Conference on the Theories and Practices of Securities and Financial Markets, Kachsiung, Taiwan, 14 - 15 Dec 2007.
Sung, M and Johnson, Johnnie (2007) Exploring the weekend effect in a market for state contingent claims. In, 22nd European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXII), Prague, Czech Republic, 08 - 11 Jul 2007. Prague, Czech Republic, University of Economics.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2007) Evidence of a weekend effect in a market for state contingent claims. In, 16th European Financial Managment Association Annual Conference, Vienna, Austria, 27 - 30 Jun 2007.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J. E.V. (2007) Evidence of a weekend effect in a market for state contingent claims. In, The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications, Palm Desert, USA, 21 - 22 May 2007.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2007) Evidence for different trading patterns of informed and uninformed bettors in weekday and weekend horserace betting markets. In, 17th Annual Conference of the National Association for Gambling Studies, Cairns, Australia, 14 - 16 Nov 2007. Cairns, Australia, National Association for Gambling Studies.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2007) The impact of noise traders on prices during holiday periods in speculative markets. In, The 5th National Taiwan University International Conference on Economics, Finance and Accounting (2007 NTU IEFA), Taipei, Taiwan, 22 - 24 May 2007. Taipei: Taiwan, National Taiwan University.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) A new perspective on weak form efficiency: empirical evidence from the UK bookmaker based betting market. In, The 13th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking, Nevada, USA, 22 - 26 May 2006. (Submitted)
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) Exploring the use of price information in a horserace betting market. In, The 16th Annual Conference of the National Association for Gambling Studies, Sydney, Australia, 2006.
Tang, L., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) Searching for market efficiency with survival analysis. In, Department of accounting and finance, Glasgow, UK, 2006. Glasgow, UK, University of Strathclyde.
Johnson, J.E.V., Lessman, S. and Sung, M. (2006) Modelling classification analysis for competitive events with applications to sports betting. In, VEAM IFIP Working Group 7.6 Workshop on Virtual Environments for Advanced Modelling, University of Hamburg, Germany, 06 - 07 Jun 2006.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) A new perspective on weak form efficiency: Empirical evidence from the UK bookmaker based betting market. In, 13th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, Harrah’s Lake Tahoe, Stateline, Nevada, USA, 22 - 26 May 2006.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) Revealing weak form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims. In, The 5th International Conference on Money, Investment & Risk, Nottingham, UK, Nov 2006.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2005) The impact of publicly available information on betting markets: Implications for bettors, betting operators and regulators. In, 6th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues, Malmo, Sweden, 29 Jun - 02 Jul 2005. 15pp.
Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2005) Searching for information inefficiency in horserace betting markets: empirical evidence from the UK bookmaker betting market. In, 4th International Equine Industry Program Academic Conference, Louisville, USA, 15 - 18 Jun 2005.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2004) Searching for semi-strong form information inefficiency in horserace betting markets: Implications for internet betting. In, The 20th European Conference on Operational Research, Rhodes, Greece, 04 - 07 Jul 2004. Rhodes: Greece,
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2004) A comparative analysis of the degree of semi-strong form efficiency in racetrack betting markets. In, The 4th International Conference, Money, Investment and Risk, Nottingham, UK, 2004 - 2003 . Nottingham Trent University.
Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2003) The efficient market hypotheses related to horserace betting markets: A literature review. In, Centre for Risk Research, Southampton: UK, University of Southampton.

Monograph

Lessmann, S., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2007) A new method for predicting the outcome of speculative events. Southampton, UK, University of Southampton, Department of Management (Department of Management: Discussion Papers in Centre for Risk Research,(CRR-07-03))
Tang, L., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2006) Searching for market efficiency with survival analysis. Glasgow, GB, University of Strathclyde (University of Strathclyde Seminar Series)
 

Research Interests

Ming-Chien's research focuses on behavioural finance, financial econometrics, and the application of Data Mining for decision-making in markets for state contingent claims. Other recent projects relate to prediction markets and behavioural economics. She has presented her research at a number of leading international conferences, and has published her work in a wide range of journals in economics, operations research, and decision-making. In line with her research interests, her teaching is currently focused in the areas of Managerial Decision-Making and Quantitative Methods.

Grants awarded:

(1) £3,000 (Nov 2010) Title: Investigation of the role of seat position effect in successful online poker plays using both naturalistic and laboratory evidence. Sponsored by: School of Management.

(2) £5,000 (Sep 2010) Title: Using machine learning methods to predict successful traders in financial markets (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: University Hamburg Staff Exchange Programme.

(3) £100,481 (Aug 2010) Title: 'The development of mathematical models for forecasting uncertainty in speculative financial markets (with Professor J. Johnson).

(4) £29,000 (Aug 2010) Title: Impact of cognitive biases on information-based trading strategies in a competitive environment (with Professor J. Johnson).

(5) £21,000 (Jun 2010) Title: The role played by cognitive bias in real world financial markets. Sponsored by: University of Southampton PGR Scholarship Scheme.

(6) £200 (Mar 2010) To award a high-achieving student studying MSc Risk Management or MSc Corporate Risk and Security Management in 2010/2011. Sponsored by: Chartered Insurance Institute (CII).
(7) About £1,100 (Feb 2010) To award students from MSc Risk Management and MSc Corporate Risk & Security Management to attend the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) 2010 Professional Development Forum. Sponsored by: IRM risk management partners.

(8) £3,000 (Oct 2009) Title: Application of combined forecasting models to competitive events in speculative markets (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: University Hamburg Staff Exchange Programme.

(9) £2,850 (May 2009) Title: Culture differences in decision bias: An information processing account of irrational behaviour. Sponsored by: School of Management.

(10) £115,377 (April 2009) Title: Efficiency of sports betting markets (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: International Software Services.

(11) £48,500 (April 2009) Title: Outcome prediction in traditional and speculative financial markets (with Professor J. Johnson and Dr. F. McGroarty). Sponsored by: International Software Services.

(12) £27,000 (Feb 2009) Title: An exploration of the use of digital information by professional financial market traders and their resulting decision biases. Sponsored by: University of Southampton Adventure in Research Grant Scheme.

(13) £3,000 (Feb 2009) Title: Speculative market structure, ecology, and individual behaviour: An agent-based computational modelling approach. Sponsored by: School of Management.

(14) £4,000 (Nov 2008) Title: Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of inefficiency in speculative financial markets (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: University Hamburg Staff Exchange Programme.

(15) £1,500 (Nov 2008) Title: Measuring the true degree of inefficiency in a speculative financial market (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: University of Hamburg, Germany.

(16) £83,092 (April 2008) Title: Enhancing organisational performance by developing new mathematical/statistical approaches for improving forecasts of competitive events. Sponsored by: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

(17) £105,000 (April 2008) Title: Efficiency of sports betting markets (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: International Software Services.

(18) £4,000 (April 2008) Title: Random Forests for competitive event prediction. Sponsored by: British Academy, U.K. and Academia Sinica, Taiwan.

(19) £1,150 (Feb 2008) Title: The effect of temperature in speculative markets. Sponsored by: School of Management.

(20) £1,310 (May 2007) Title: Random forests for competitive event prediction. Sponsored by: School of Management.

(21) £1,500 (Jan 2007) Title: Support vector machines for competitive event prediction. Sponsored by: University Hamburg Staff Exchange Programme.

(22) £1,500 (Jun 2006) Title: Support vector machines for competitive event prediction (with Professor J. Johnson). Sponsored by: School of Management.

Primary research group:  Centre for Risk Research

Affiliate research group:  CORMSIS: Centre for Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems

PhD supervision


Ming-Chien is joint supervisor for the following PhD candidates:

Mr. David McDonald holding full EPSRC scholoarship to model weak form efficiency in speculative markets.
Mr. Dang Tran holding Overseas Research Students (ORS) award and scholarship for doctoral research from School of Mathematics to explore investment strategies in online poker.
Mr. Eng Tuck Cheah holding full scholarship for doctoral research from School of Management exploring mood effects in speculative markets.

Dr Ming-Chien Sung
Southampton Management School
University of Southampton
Southampton
SO17 1BJ, UK.

Phone +44 (0)23 8059 8974
Fax +44 (0)23 8059 3844
E-mail ms9@soton.ac.uk

Room Number: 2/4085