Decision Analytics and Risk Research

Research in our Department is conducted within five well-established and thriving research entities:

• Centre of Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems (CORMSIS)
• Centre for Risk Research (CRR)
• Advanced Project Management Research Centre (APROM)
• Product Returns Research Group (PRRG)
• Centre for Healthcare Analytics (CHA)

Impact

Marine Autonomous Vehicles

Through collaborations with world-leading manufacturers of unmanned vessels and the Canadian Government, our research on the risk and reliability of marine autonomous systems has resulted in economic and geopolitical impact. A leading UK company embedded our probabilistic modelling in the development process for its autonomous surface vehicles. This allowed the company to meet the risk and safety levels required to:·

• break into the profitable oil and gas market, securing a large market share;
• invest £500,000 in a new risk and reliability department;
• create two new high-skilled jobs; and
• form collaborations with other industry leaders.

Healthcare in Sri Lanka

Computer simulation models based directly on our research are now in routine use by the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health for planning the recruitment and training of health professionals.

As result, over 1.5 million people with no previous access to state-funded care are now able to visit a dentist once a year, and the number of unemployed qualified dentists has fallen to zero.

Selection of key publications

Title	Journal	Link
Quantifying the impact of environment factors on the risk of medical responders’ stress-related absenteeism	Risk Analysis	https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13909
Moving away from Trading on the Margins: Economic Empowerment of Informal Businesses through FinTech	Information Systems Journal	https://doi.org/10.1111/isj.12403
Waste reduction in the supply chain of a deteriorating food item - impact of supply structure on retailer performance	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.09.015
Are the least successful traders those most likely to exit the market? A survival analysis contribution to the efficient market debate	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.08.050
Transparent modelling of influenza incidence	International Journal of Forecasting	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.12.006
How can lenders prosper? Comparing machine learning approaches to identify profitable peer-to-peer loan investments	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.047
The value of text for small business default prediction	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.03.008
Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.09.048
Deep learning for credit scoring: Do or don’t?	European Journal of Operational Research	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.03.006
The role of perceived risk on dishonest decision making during a pandemic	Risk Analysis	https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14082

Please see our members’ staff profiles for a full list of their publications.