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Southampton Business School

Dr David McDonald MMath

Research Fellow

Dr David McDonald's photo

Dr David McDonald is Research Fellow within Southampton Business School at the University of Southampton.

David McDonald joined the School as a Research Fellow in 2012 after being awarded an EPSRC Doctoral Prize grant. He is currently engaged on an EPSRC Knowledge Transfer Secondment with WBX Ltd. Previously, he gained an MMath in Mathematics at Jesus College, Oxford University before moving to Southampton where he was awarded his PhD from the Business School in 2012, with the title "Biased decision making in a naturalistic environment: implications for forecasts of competitive events".

Research interests

My primary research interest is in developing new statistical methods for forecasting and evaluation of discrete choice models, which is a class of models that are widely used to predict choices made by individuals in management, economic, and social contexts.

In 2012 I completed my PhD thesis in the Business School, in which I investigated biased decision making in naturalistic environments. In particular, I studied the aggregate decision making of investors in betting markets for sporting events such as horseraces, and how both psychological and economic factors result in biased market outcomes.

Overall, my research interests include:

  • Statistical modelling of discrete choice problems
  • Forecasting of competitive events, e.g., political elections, sports, horseraces
  • Optimal strategies for investment in risky assets
  • Heuristics and biases in risky decision making
  • Behavioural finance
  • Exchange markets for state contingent claims and prediction markets

Dr David McDonald
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
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