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The University of Southampton
The Care Life Cycle

Workshop on use of probabilistic forecasts

Published: 19 June 2014

CLC will jointly host a one-day workshop on the 19th June, on the use of probabilistic forecasts, with the focus on population applications. The workshop will be held at the Royal Statistical Society in London.

The main aim of the workshop is to bring together both academics and practitioners of probabilistic population forecasting to discuss barriers to the uses of probabilistic forecasts and possible ways to overcome them.

A second aim is to learn from the best practice in other areas of application of probabilistic forecasting.

The focus of the programme will be on various aspects of communicating uncertainty in demographic forecasting, and on developing practical guidelines both for "producers", as well as "consumers" (users) of probabilistic population forecasts.

Confirmed speakers and panellists include (in alphabetical order):

  • Dr Isabel Alberts (German Weather Service)
  • Prof. Juha Alho (University of Helsinki)
  • Dr John Bryant (Statistics New Zealand)
  • Dr Thomas Buettner (formerly UN Population Division)
  • Dr Patrick Gerland (UN Population Division)
  • Prof. Nico Keilman (University of Oslo)
  • Dr Giampaolo Lanzieri (Eurostat)
  • Prof. Anthony O'Hagan (University of Sheffield)
  • Dr Luca Onorante (Central Bank of Ireland)
  • Mr Darragh Owens (aviation)
  • Mr Richard Pereira (Office for National Statistics)
  • Prof. Adrian Raftery (University of Washington)
  • Dr Hana Ševčíková (University of Washington)
  • Prof. Frans Willekens (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

Download the full programme

The event is jointly organised by the ESRC Centre for Population Change, the EPSRC Care Life Cycle Project at the University of Southampton, and the Probabilistic Population Projection Group at the University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

The registration fee is £50 per person (£25 for students). It covers the programme, buffet lunch, as well as morning and afternoon refreshments.

To register for the course, please go to the University of Southampton online shop. Registration for the event closes on 31 may 2014. The number of places is limited, so please book early to avoid disappointment.

All enquiries should be directed to

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