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The University of Southampton
The Care Life Cycle

Population ageing: the time-bomb that isn't? Seminar

15:00 - 16:00
12 December 2013
Building 58, Room 1007

For more information regarding this seminar, please telephone Yvonne Richardson on 02380 598981 or email .

Event details

Joint CLC/CPC Seminar

Abstract: For the first time ever, there are now more elderly (65+) in the UK than children (< 15). While declining fertility and infant mortality levels formed the basis for this growth from the end of the 19th century until WWII, for example through the defeat of child killing infectious diseases, since the 1970s falling old-age mortality has been an additional driving force. This 'population ageing' has worried policy makers because for every worker paying tax and national insurance there are more older citizens, with greater demands on social insurance, health and welfare systems and increasing volumes of morbidity and disability. However, these concerns are based on measures of ageing that do not take proper account of rising life expectancy or changes in the labour force. We therefore propose an alternative, more objective, measurement of ageing that considers remaining life expectancy and the employed population rather than a fixed old-age category and the population of working age. Results show that old age-dependency turns out to have fallen substantially in the UK over recent decades, and is likely stabilize close to its current level.

Speaker information

Professor John MacInnes & Dr Jeroen Spijker, University of Edinburgh. John MacInnes is ESRC Strategic Advisor on Quantitative Methods Training and Jeroen Spijker is a Senior Research Fellow.

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