Seminar by Dileep De Silva Event

Title: A SD Model born in Southampton, implemented in Sri Lanka

Abstract:

The OR literature contains countless examples of healthcare applications, yet the number of papers which report any implementation at all, let alone successful implementation, is very small (Fone et al., 2003; Brailsford et al., 2009; Brailsford et al., 2013). Robinson and Pidd (1998) discuss different perspectives (client and modeller) on defining success in simulation projects, and Harper and Pitt (2004) propose a framework for successful implementation of OR models in healthcare. Nevertheless, there are still depressingly few published papers which present a model which has actually been used to change something in the real world, and then report on that change.

This presentation describes a System Dynamics model developed at the School of Management University of Southampton, which has been successfully implemented by the Government in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the university dental school, through different career paths through to retirement. The demand-side model calculates a range of future demand scenarios for dental care, based on different assumptions about Sri Lanka’s potential future economic development.

The combined model was used by the Sri Lankan government to plan better provision of state-funded dental care and the future university intake of dental students. Data collection for both models was challenging, and required some innovative research. The model itself (and its successful application) raises a number of wider issues concerning model implementation and acceptability by clients and model users.