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The University of Southampton
CORMSIS Centre for Operational Research, Management Sciences and Information Systems

CORMSIS Seminar Event

15:00 - 16:00
19 March 2015

For more information regarding this event, please telephone Sally Brailsford on +23567 or email .

Event details

Disability-free life expectancy and need for care: past, present and future


This seminar will describe a new microsimulation model, MicSIMPOP, being developed as part of an NIHR-ESRC project  ‘Modelling outcome and cost impacts of interventions for dementia (MODEM). The aims of MicSIMPOP are to model (a) the health and associated care needs of the English population over the next decades; (b) the impact of interventions for risk factor reduction, disease prevention and treatments that slow down progression to disease and disability; and (c) the potential for compression of disability through estimation of trends in disability-free life expectancy. As background to the new model, results from an earlier macrosimulation model SIMPOP will be presented as well as new results on trends in healthy life expectancy from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies which form the basis of both models.

Speaker information

Professor Carol Jagger,Newcastle University, is the AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing in the Newcastle University Institute for Ageing. Her research programme spans demography and epidemiology with a focus on mental and physical functioning in ageing and has three themes: Understanding variations in Healthy Active Life Expectancy; Disability and Functioning in Later Life; and Ageing Population Projections for Policy. She is the leading UK researcher on healthy life expectancy. Within Europe she is on the Scientific Advisory Board of the Joint Programming Initiative ‘More Years, Better Lives’ and nationally she has advised the Office for National Statistics and the Scottish Public Health Observatory on Healthy Life Expectancy. Carol’s macrosimulation model SIMPOP, linking health and disease scenarios to future projections of disability, provided evidence to the House of Lords report ‘Ready for Ageing’. Carol is a Chartered Scientist, an Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and an Associate Editor of Ageing and Ageing.

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