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The University of Southampton
CORMSIS Centre for Operational Research, Management Sciences and Information Systems

Generating forecasts for combination: Applications in inventory and call centre management Event

16:00 - 17:00
9 June 2016
Room 3041 Building 2, Southampton Business School

For more information regarding this event, please email Dr Yuan Huang at .

Event details

There is general consensus among research and practice that combining forecasts is an effective approach for reducing forecast errors and avoiding the model selection challenge. In the forty years since the seminal work of Bates and Granger, two areas of research continue to be of importance in forecast combination, the generation of the individual forecasts to be combined, and the evaluation and application of the combined forecast. The generation of individual forecasts is closely linked to modelling uncertainty, be it about the structure of the model, the estimates of the model parameters, or random unexplained variations in the sample data. This presentation will briefly discuss several methods for generating forecasts based on these different sources of uncertainty. These include the use of different model types, multiple architectures given the same model type, and data driven methods based on bootstrapping, boosting and cross-validation to name a few. The presentation will discuss what has been learnt, and will present results on the forecasting performance of such methods under different properties of the data and combination method.

Speaker information

Dr. Devon K. Barrow ,Coventry Business School,Bio: Dr. Devon K. Barrow is a Senior Lecturer at Coventry Business School. He was previously a Research Associate at the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting and at present holds a Visiting Researcher position within the Centre. His research focuses on time series prediction with neural networks and statistical methods, with a particular emphasis on forecast combination and model selection. He also has an interest in education and pedagogical design with specific application to the forecasting domain. Dr. Barrow has worked on real world problems in call centre, electric load, and utility forecasting and provided knowledge transfer and consultancy in forecasting and supply chain management within the Manufacturing and Retail Sectors. He has delivered academic and practitioner training courses in forecasting, and presents regularly at leading international forecasting conferences. He is a past member of the Association of Certified Chartered Accountants (ACCA) and a member of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT).

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