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The University of Southampton
CORMSIS Centre for Operational Research, Management Sciences and Information Systems

CORMSIS seminar: AUR - A Profit-Based Approach for Evaluating LGD Regressions Event

16:00 - 17:00
4 February 2016
Room 3041 Building 2, Southampton Business School

For more information regarding this event, please email Dr Yuan Huang at .

Event details

Abstract: When estimating consumer risk regression problems (EAD and LGD in particular), it is common practice to evaluate them using statistical measures, such as the Mean Square Error (MSE) or the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In this presentation, we argue that this is not enough within a financial or business-oriented context, since the profits and costs of any given solution can have a greater impact on the application of the model, as tools such as the H-measure (Hand, 2009) and the EMP measure (Verbraken et al., 2014) have shown for credit scoring. Our proposal develops a profit-based measure for evaluating regression problems that are subject to estimation errors and random shocks, and is calculated by separating the costs and benefits of applying any given model on the profits that arise from the impact of the output of the model itself, and the impact on profits of the error of the estimation. These two quantities (errors and outputs) define a parametric profit surface, which can be regularized and adjusted by random effects constructing a regular, well-behaved function. The surface then serves as input for an expected profit measure. We evaluate the measure, named AUR (Average Utility in Regression models) on LGD datasets and conclude that the impact of profits cannot be neglected when evaluating these models, and that AUR is an effective tool to estimate these impacts.

Speaker information

Dr Cristián Bravo,Southampton Business School ,Bio: Dr. Cristián Bravo is Lecturer in Business Analytics at The University of Southampton Business School. Previously he served as Instructor Professor at the University of Talca, Chile, Research Fellow at KU Leuven, Belgium, Research Director, Finance Centre, Universidad de Chile, and Head of Business Intelligence at one of the largest insurance companies in Chile. His research focuses on the development an application of predictive, descriptive and prospective analytics to the problem of credit risk in micro, small and medium enterprises; covering diverse topics and methodologies, such as semi-supervised techniques, social networks analytics, fraud analytics, reject inference, and multiple modelling methodologies. His work has been published in well-known international journals, he has edited two special issues in business analytics in reputed scientific journals, and he regularly teaches courses in Credit Risk and Analytics to business professionals.

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