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The University of Southampton
CORMSIS Centre for Operational Research, Management Sciences and Information Systems

Barclaycard: Forecasting Probability of Default

Forecasting future bad debt is a key requirement for all banks and financial institutions. A student project gave the opportunity to test many different methodologies in a short space of time.

Project Objective:

To evaluate as many different time-series forecasting methods as possible for predicting probability of default for credit card portolios.


The student investigated the methods for forecasting and how the success of these forecasting techniques should be measured.


The project resulted in the "best" time-series forecasting methods identified being adopted for future forecasts. Sylvia Tande and Ben Maddox who did these projects were both offered and accepted places on the Graduate program with Barclaycard.



It’s not just about what the numbers are and how you get to the answer. It’s about what you do with that information once you’ve got it, what are the management recommendations you will make using it and how your business will be different tomorrow than it is today.

The project was a real launch pad for my career. I learned a lot of skills that I was able to apply directly and had a head start over the other graduate entrants that joined the company." He now works with Barclaycard.

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