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The University of Southampton
Social Statistics and DemographyPart of Economic, Social & Political Science

An agent-based decision model of migration embedded in the life course Seminar

Economic, Social and Political Sciences
1 December 2014

For more information regarding this seminar, please telephone Mel Morgan on 02380 592579 or email .

Event details

A joint Centre for Population Change and Care Life Cycle seminar

The goal of our research is to build a model which allows analysing population dynamics with respect to the effects of the timing and location of possible future migration flows which might by influenced by policy changes and demographic transitions. To this end, we develop a prototype for a new generation of models which combine microsimulation of demographic processes with decision-making and interaction in an agent-based fashion. The proposed model is a combination of two different models: A demographic projection model describing life course dynamics, and an agent-based model for describing unobservable decision processes related to migration. The occurrence and timing of all life events other than migration are determined based on Markovian processes (i.e., by microsimulation), whereas migration events are the outcome of a decision process based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The parameters of the microsimulation model are estimated using multistate survival models on the MAFE (Migrations between Africa and Europe) data set, a micro survey of Senegalese individuals and heads of household in Senegal and Southern Europe. The unobservable parameters of the decision model are chosen using established calibration methods.

Speaker information

Anna Kablunde, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. TBA

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