Hydrological uncertainties in modelling karst hydrology and implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions Seminar

This seminar will explore the use of karst hydrology models to attribute the uncertainty in climatic reconstructions that arises specifically as a result of variable water routing. A monthly lumped parameter model is used to demonstrate the range of modelled drip water discharges possible from a single climate input. A refinement of the model, including precipitation δ18O, is then used to determine the range in drip water and stalagmite δ 18O for selected sites with contrasting climates in Europe, Africa and Australia. For actual climate (monthly mean temperature; monthly total precipitation; monthly mean precipitation δ 18O), model simulations of karst groundwater storage and drip-water δ 18O are compared to demonstrate the potential of the approach to model different climate regimes realistically. The seminar will conclude by reviewing the implications of the hydrological model for stalagmite δ 18O Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstructions over different timescales and sampling resolutions.