Mathematical Frameworks for Pandemic Preparedness Seminar

For many human pathogens, the burden of disease depends on age and previous exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. We have developed a general model for the demographic signatures of the transition from pandemic emergence to endemicity. We point to the transition in age-structure of the risk from virgin epidemic to endemic equilibrium, with the young at the highest rates of infection. With the framework we further evaluate the effectiveness of vaccine allocation strategies. We argue that prioritizing vaccination by age and social activity may advance societal health benefits. In particular, we offer new guidelines and a quantitative tool for considering prioritization of vaccination for Scandinavian countries with comparable demographies, public health infrastructure and relatively lower infection-fatality ratios.

Speaker Information

Ruiyun Li – Researcher, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo

Bio:

I am a researcher at the Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES) at University of Oslo. My research interests cover health geographics, mathematical epidemiology and public health. Throughout my early career, I have engaged extensively with methodological innovation for the spread of multiple diseases, leveraging multidisciplinary approaches to investigate diffusions of avian influenza, dengue, malaria and coronavirus, across various spatio-temporal scales. I trained in mathematical epidemiology at Columbia University and CEES, and worked as a research associate in Imperial College London.