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The University of Southampton
Institute for Life Sciences

Disease Ecology Meeting Event

Time:
12:00 - 13:00
Date:
10 September 2014
Venue:
Room 1087 Building 44 Highfield Campus

For more information regarding this event, please telephone Nicola Wardrop on 023 8059 4612 or email Nicola.Wardrop@soton.ac.uk .

Event details

Mapping the incidence and detection probability of human African trypanosomiasis

Effective planning for the control and eventual elimination of human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) will require accurate and reliable spatial information on the distribution of the disease. The Atlas of HAT, recently established by WHO and FAO, aims to map the locations of all known HAT cases. Whilst these data provide an unparalleled resource for spatial risk assessment, the strong spatial bias in case reporting necessitates the development of predictive models to produce continuous maps of disease risk. Unfortunately the complexity of the dataset (which contains case reports from both active and passive detection) and the highly focal nature of the disease limit the applicability of existing spatial models.

To overcome these issues, a collaboration between the Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, WHO and FAO is developing a novel Bayesian modelling framework to simultaneously map the incidence of HAT cases (both gambiense and rhodesiense forms) and the probability of detection of cases. We describe the suite of sociological and environmental correlates developed to map these two processes, outline the joint statistical model developed and present preliminary results.

The resulting maps will provide accurate subnational estimates of the incidence of HAT to guide the implementation of interventions, highlight areas where case detection could be improved and identify regions where previously undetected transmission foci may be present.

These meetings are intended for everyone with an interest in disease ecology, spatial epidemiology and the types of spatial analysis and modelling methods that may be used in this field. There will also be a lot of relevance in some of our meetings for researchers in similar fields (e.g. species distribution modelling, health geography).

All are welcome to join us – it’s a great opportunity to get together and discuss on-going research, methods, conferences, publications and more in a relaxed and informal atmosphere. Feel free to bring your lunch.

The list of upcoming meetings is kept up to date here.

Speaker information

Dr Nick Golding,Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford

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