S3RI Short Talks Seminar Seminar
For more information regarding this seminar, please email Dr Helen Ogden at H.E.Ogden@southampton.ac.uk .
Event details
90 minutes of talks. Schedule detailed below:
14:00: "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach", by Joanne Ellison (University of Southampton)
Abstract: In keeping with the recent literature, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to forecast cohort fertility rates. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and a dataset from the Human Fertility Database, we obtain forecasts for 30 countries and use scoring rules to quantitatively assess their predictive accuracy.
14:20: "Approaches to the emulation of chains of computer models with application to epidemic policy making", Samuel Jackson (University of Southampton)
Abstract: We describe novel Bayes linear emulation methodology to analyse chains of computer models, where the outputs of one model feed into the next model. We focus on emulating each model in the chain individually, thus we have developed emulators for models where the input is uncertain (as the inputs to all but the first model are the uncertain emulated outputs of another model). The first method proposes analysing each emulator’s behaviour for a sample of inputs arising from a probabilistic distribution commensurate with our beliefs about the output of the previous emulator. The second method extends the field of emulation to directly incorporate uncertain inputs within each emulator itself. We demonstrate the potential of these novel emulation approaches using intuitive examples, before demonstrating their advantage over the single emulator approach for modelling of epidemic diseases.
14:40 - 15:00. Refreshments in SRR, level 4 of Building 54
15:00: "Mortality statistics by place and cause of death in England and Wales, 1851-1910", Andrew Hinde (University of Southampton)
Abstract: This presentation will describe the challenges in producing a set of regional mortality statistics by place and cause of death for England and Wales between 1851 and 1910. The challenges arise from the fact that (1) during the period the Registrar General made several changes to the classification scheme used to report causes of death, and (2) population growth and change meant that the geographical units used in the reporting varied over time. The paper is an historical illustration of issues faced by many statisticians who need to work with long time series of official data.