Faculty researchers lead project to tackle NHS winter pressures
Researchers from the Faculty of Medicine are involved in a programme of rapid research projects aiming to ease winter pressures faced by the NHS. This year, the NHS is under considerable strain compounded by COVID-19 and a record flu season, and the cost-of-living crisis.
Two Faculty of Medicine academics one of a number of projects from the University of Southampton, which have been launched by Health Data Research UK (HDR UK) with funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).
Dr Nazrul Islam, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, and Dr Hajira Dambha-Miller, an NIHR Clinical Lecturer in General Practice and a practicing GP, will lead a project to understand which combinations of Multiple Long-Term Conditions (MLTC) are associated with the highest risk of hospitalisation and death over the winter season.
Around 14 million people in England live with MLTC – two or more chronic conditions such as diabetes chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and arthritis. People living with MLTC have a higher risk of being admitted to hospital and of dying during the winter season. However, it is not known which combinations of MLTC are associated with the highest risk of these poor health outcomes, and if vaccinations (against COVID-19 or seasonal flu) can lower this risk.
Dr Islam and Dr Dambha-Miller’s project will use machine learning approaches to analyse patient data to answer these questions to help develop interventions and strategies to reduce the risk for this vulnerable group of patients.
Dr Dambha-Miller said: “This work will complement our ongoing research on multiple long-term conditions and social care needs and advance our understanding of the risk and vulnerabilities of people living with MLTC.”
Dr Islam added: "This is one-of-a-kind initiative using such a large volume of data to produce robust evidence on the combinations of long-term conditions that are associated with a higher risk of winter hospitalisation and death. Our findings will potentially save lives through a combination of identification of high-risk groups for earlier or prioritised implementation of preventive measures, and proportionate allocation of resources."
Dr Islam is also working on two other projects within the programme with his collaborators at the Office for National Statistics and University College London.
There are two other projects from the University of Southampton. One will tackle complex hospital discharge processes and the other will address how long patients with acute respiratory infections stay in hospital.
Overall, 16 projects have been launched across the UK. Each project is designed to generate findings in just a few months so that they can be implemented for future winters. After being selected in December 2022, the studies will start in January, produce results by the end of March, and publish their findings later this year.