Background:
We know that humans have increased the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere because we can measure the concentration in the atmosphere today and we can measure it for the past. The multi-trillion dollar question is: How much more CO 2 will we add and how much will Earth heat up?
Image right: Computationally efficient projections of global warmth to 2100 .
Key Questions:
1. By how much must we restrict carbon dioxide emissions to prevent warming from reaching 3 to 5°C?
2. Which periods of sudden warming in the geological past reveal most about current anthropogenic warming?
3. Which past climate states in the geological past most resemble a future warmed world?
How do we do it?
We utilise geological archives to reconstruct different past climate states, and the transitions between them (e.g., Klages et al., 2020 ; Liu et al., 2018 ). We use computationally efficient climate models to generate large ensemble simulations of past conditions, and use the information gained to simulate future climate change (e.g., Goodwin et al., 2018 ).
Who in Palaeoceanography and Palaeoclimate is involved?
Steve Bohaty; Philip Goodwin; Ian Harding; Eelco Rohling; Paul A. Wilson.
Links to other Research Themes
