The View from Portugal
The reaction in Portugal to the ongoing Brexit saga has been one of bemusement mixed with familiarity. British Euroscepticism is hardly a new phenomenon and is well known across the continent but from the Portuguese perspective it seems strange that a country already so detached from the project of integration, outside the Eurozone and with many opt-outs from other policy areas, should seek to further distance itself. This sense of perplexity has been heightened by recent internal events which have served to politicize the EU in Portugal as never before. At first glance it may seem a strange comparison but many of the issues facing the UK and particularly David Cameron are shared by Portugal and the Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa. Both are leaders seeking to balance national interests against the constraints of EU membership and both are seeking to prove their pro-EU credentials while walking a tightrope of anti-EU feeling among their public and within their respective parliaments.
A politicized EU
In the week before Cameron visited Brussels , to negotiate his 'deal' between the UK and the EU, Costa had been in town needing to get EU approval for the 2016 national budget. Costa’s task being to pull back on the austerity policies of the past five years in the hostile environs of a Eurogroup which prizes fiscal consolidation above all else, while maintaining the precarious support of leftist parties he needs for his parliamentary majority, this includes historically Eurosceptic communists and the Euro-agnostic Left Bloc. Costa is particularly keen to demonstrate his support for the EU after the, now infamous, interjection from the Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva following the October 2015 elections. After the election produced no clear majority, Cavaco Silva chose to nominate the minority centre-right leader Pedro Passos Coelho as Prime Minister, claiming Portugal’s economic and social stability was dependent on membership of the EU and the Euro, and that a leftist coalition would jeopardise this. The result was the shortest lived government in Portuguese history, which lasted just 11 days before falling to a vote of no confidence. Cavaco Silva was forced to backtrack, nominating Costa as the new Prime Minister on 26th November.
Fears of (P)exit
Portugal’s relationship with the EU has been severely strained since the financial crisis. The 2011 bailout came conditioned on the implementation of severe austerity measures which further undermined Portuguese sovereignty and economic autonomy. Despite this, support for the EU has remained strong, unsurprising for a country with a long history of economic emigration to other member-states and which has benefitted greatly from EU Structural Funds. There is also significant fear, which Cavaco Silva played on, of Portugal’s future should the EU and the Eurozone collapse. It is in this context that much of the Portuguese reaction to Brexit has been situated. What has been dubbed ‘the battle for Britain’ has seen Costa enthusiastic about keeping Britain in but concerned about the consequences of welfare concessions on Portuguese citizens working in the UK.
Concerns about the impact of the EU on sovereignty aren’t limited to the UK, even though most member-states face even stronger constraints. But for those countries like Portugal, that see their future as inextricably linked to the survival of the EU, the UK’s continued membership is seen as an important component of this. As the Brexit vote remains on a knife-edge, and the underlying issues unlikely to be resolved whatever the vote, many in Portugal will be watching events in the UK with fascination and apprehension.
Adam Standring
Adam Standring is a PhD candidate at FCSH -
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
and a researcher in the
Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais
(IPRI).
