If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, it might shatter the country itself
Hopefully, the British public will decide on June 23rd by a small, but firm majority to keep the United Kingdom in the European Union. The deciding factor will be human uncertainty in the face of big changes, the results of which cannot be accurately predicted by anyone. It concerns that part of the British electorate who have not yet clearly specified their stance and will decide at the last minute. That part of the electorate will often be determining when it comes to decisions, where the polarisation of society is large and principled, but neither side has a clear overwhelming majority.
The situation, which the UK and the whole European Union have ended up in, is a clear example of what happens when the majority of political leaders agrees with public opinion before elections, instead of trying to explain their principles in a rational way. That is exactly what has happened in the UK, where people mostly from Central and Eastern Europe have arrived as part of the EU's labour mobility programme. This migration flow upsets locals more and more, and the subsequent political-populist mess in a pre-elections state caused all leading political powers to promise to hold a referendum on leaving the EU.
The United Kingdom is already very loosely tied to the EU. It is neither in the Schengen system nor in the Eurozone. But still, it has not been able to avoid terrorism and economic problems. Recent agreements of the UK and the rest of the EU achieved in the European Council give Prime Minister Cameron a reason to finally publicly support remaining in the EU, but the influence of the EU-British agreement on the British public opinion is like to be limited. The more significant factors are going to be the USA's clear support for the UK to remain in the EU and also a general uncertainty about the future. Because there cannot be any answers on how the UK is able to deal with security concerns, the possibilities of economic growth and many other important issues outside of the EU. In addition, if the majority support leaving the EU, it might lead to the collapse of the United Kingdom itself. Scotland will then hold a new independence referendum and in that part of the UK the majority supports remaining in the EU.
Brexit, or the exit referendum that grew uncontrollably out of the UK's national politics, has become a big problem in the whole EU. There are other countries in the EU where in the current difficult times there are more people who oppose the EU, and the UK's example seems to have an inspiring effect on them. The Netherlands, for example, recently held a referendum on the ratification of the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement. In essence, this referendum had little to do with that agreement and was more general demonstration showing dissatisfaction with the EU.
We in Estonia should keep our fingers crossed that the UK referendum does not put a start to a domino effect that leads to a weaker Europe. The British public will decide if they want their country to remain in the EU, but we hope that they will stay.
Urmas Paet MEP
Urmas has been a Member of the European Parliament since the 2014 European elections. A member of the ALDE (Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) political faction, he currently serves on the Committee on Budgets. Previous to this he was Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia from 2005 to 2014. He is a member of the Estonian Reform Party. In September 2010, Paet became the longest serving minister since the re-establishment of Estonian independence.
