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The University of Southampton
Centre for Risk Research

Smart(er) Money: Using the Environment to Enhance Statistical and Economic Value of Task Performance Forecasts Seminar

Time:
13:00 - 14:00
Date:
22 March 2017
Venue:
Room 1085 Southampton Business School (Bdg 2) Highfield University of Southampton SO17 1BJ

For more information regarding this seminar, please telephone Dr Ian G.J. Dawson on 02380 598094 or email I.G.Dawson@Soton.ac.uk .

Event details

This CRR seminar will shed new light on the importance of elaborating predictive models that make full use of information available from abstract and complex constructs. This will demonstrate the extent to which these models may be associated with forecasting calibration, decision making and risk management. Multiple factors in the environment may influence behaviour in ways which are not readily comprehensible, and neglecting or not fully incorporating these factors when studying task performance involving living beings is an important omission as it may lead to sub-optimal forecasts and less accurate probabilistic judgements. We examine this argument in the context of horseracing real-world data, where deriving from a multidisciplinary approach, we formulate a methodology to extract information contained in different publicly available environmental conditions in relation to the performance of individual horses and jockeys over time.We find that including the influence of the environment on task performance improves forecasting power, accuracy and calibration leading to substantial improvements in financial decision-making and risk management strategies.

Speaker information

Luis Felipe Costa Sperb,Luis Felipe Costa Sperb is a PhD student at the Centre for Risk Research, where his research focuses on a multidisciplinary approach to study how the environment may influence task performance and market behaviour in order to help decision makers develop policies and strategies that fully accommodate for deviations in rational asset allocation choices in financial markets. Further information about Felipe can be found at his Centre for Risk Research profile page: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/risk/about/our_students/luis_felipe_costa_sperb.page

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