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The University of Southampton
Centre for Risk Research

A Fuzzy System Dynamics Approach to Risk Analysis  Event

Dr. Loh Tzu Yang
14:00 - 15:00
16 April 2021
Online, MS Teams

For more information regarding this event, please email Dr Mario Brito at .

Event details


From an endeavour as complex as landing Perseverance Rover on Mars to a simple task such as crossing a road, risk pervades in all forms of human activities. Despite significant theoretical and empirical advances on the subject of risk in the last century, it remains largely a relatively complex and vague concept. Consequently, myriad risk analysis methodologies have been developed in adaptation across various disciplines, systems, industries, environments, or even stages of processes. However, several common shortfalls and challenges exist in many risk analysis approaches. The adoption of the chain-of-events paradigm, which displaces complex and potentially fruitful accounts of interacting risk contributors, insufficient considerations on the dynamic nature of risk, and the lack of systematic, regular data for analysis are just some examples. In this presentation, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis approach will be introduced to address these shortfalls. Leveraging on the strength of both fuzzy logic and system dynamics approach, it accounts for the dynamic nature of risk, interrelationships between risk factors within a system, as well as the uncertainties of these relationships.  Insights gained through its application can then be used to improve mental models of decision-makers for better decision-making. To facilitate its application, an iterative three-step fuzzy system dynamics framework shall be discussed. In the last part of the presentation, the usefulness of the framework for analysing complex risks will be demonstrated through a case study based on an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) program.


Speaker Biography:

Following his B.Sc (Biological Sciences) from Nanyang Technological University (Singapore), Tzu Yang joined PSA Corporation Ltd, a leader in the global ports and terminals business where he focuses on management of occupational safety and health risks. During his tenure as a senior manager with PSA, he spearheaded data analytics focusing on risk profiling for accident prevention, which has since been implemented across the company. He was also assisting the company in supply chain risk and enterprise risk management.

Tzu Yang then went on to earn his M.Sc (Safety, Health, and Environmental Technology) from the National University of Singapore and Certified Industrial Hygienist (CIH) certification from the Board for Global EHS credentialing (BGC), formally known as the American Board of Industrial Hygiene (ABIH). Tzu Yang completed his Ph.D. in Maritime Engineering from the University of Tasmania (Australia) focusing on risk analysis of autonomous underwater vehicle operations in the Antarctic. Much of his research examines different risk analysis methodologies used across various disciplines and industries. During his research, he published several papers in journals such as the Journal of Risk Analysis and Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics.

Dr. Loh Tzu Yang is currently the Regional Health, Safety, and Security Manager for Merlin Entertainments Plc in Asia. Merlin Entertainments is the world’s second-largest visitor attraction operator and has over 130 attractions around the world, ranging from indoor attractions such as SEA LIFE and Madame Tussauds to iconic theme parks like LEGOLAND and Alton Towers Resort.

Speaker information

Dr. Loh Tzu Yang,Merlin Entertainments Plc, Poole, United Kingdom,Email:

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