Understanding migration and forecasting population changes

Expertise from the S3RI has helped policymakers in the UK and Europe to understand more about migration numbers and make accurate population forecasts.

Population data from different countries can be challenging to work with as national statisticians often use different systems and methodologies and levels of accuracy can vary. The University of Southampton has demonstrated how statistical modelling, conceptual frameworks and migration projections can radically improve the information from these various data sources.

A team led by James Raymer, Professor of Demography, Dr Jakub Bijak, Lecturer in Demography and Peter WF Smith, Professor of Social Statistics successfully guided the Office for National Statistics in overhauling its methodologies, to make the organisation compliant with EU regulations. This is significant as ONS data feeds into numerous areas of public policy, public service provision and the UK economy.

The researchers also investigated how migration can alter the demographics of regions and countries and pose a challenge to the accuracy of official population estimates and projections. They demonstrated how government bodies have struggled to accurately document and interpret those changes. They also used that knowledge to work directly with those government bodies to significantly improve their use, and understanding, of the statistics available to them.