The challenges of analysing outbreaks of infectious diseases Seminar

Recent epidemic outbreaks have forcefully reminded us of the ever present threat posed by infectious disease agents. HIV, vCJD, West Nile virus, SARS and H5N1 avian influenza cases in humans are part of a broader picture in which infectious diseases remain the leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. At the same time, our ability to detect, identify and publicise the presence of new pathogens has increased dramatically. With better surveillance and communications, unusual spatio-temporal clusters of mortality and morbidity are more likely to come to the attention of governments, international agencies (such as the WHO) and the general public. Making best use of real-time data, usually heterogeneous and often noisy, represents a key challenge for researchers working to inform and improve our ability to respond to new threats. Sophisticated statistical methods coupled with predictive real-time modelling gives the potential for us to fully exploit available data to best guide public health responses to new outbreaks.