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Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute

The 2015 General Election Polls: what went wrong? Seminar

Time:
14:30 - 15:25
Date:
20 October 2016
Venue:
Building 54/Room 5025.

Event details

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labour at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative lead in the vote share has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some prominent figures even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election. In response to these events, the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society instigated an independent inquiry into the causes of the discrepancy between the final polls and the election result. In this presentation, Professor Patrick Sturgis, who chaired the inquiry, will set out the main findings and conclusions.

Speaker information

Professor Patrick Sturgis,,University of Southampton

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