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The University of Southampton
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research InstitutePostgraduate study

Mr Neil Bailey BSc Population Sciences - University of Southampton, MSc Social Statistics - University of Southampton

Postgraduate Research Student

Mr Neil Bailey's photo

Mr Neil Bailey is Postgraduate Research Student within Social Sciences at the University of Southampton.

I am a postgraduate researcher in the Faculty of Social, Human and Mathematical Sciences, Division of Social Statistics and Demography. I joined the Faculty of Social, Human and Mathematical Sciences at the University of Southampton in 2007 to read my undergraduate degree in Population Sciences.

During my undergraduate degree I built up a great interest in the statistical side of demography and as a result I applied for the ESRC funded 1+3 program which allowed me to continue my studies at the university reading an MSc in Social Statistics.

For my MSc dissertation I conducted a piece of work for the Office for National Statistics entitled “Uncertainty in local authority mid-year population estimates”. The ONS then developed on my work and produced an official report with the same title in which my work is acknowledged and referenced:

Uncertainty in Local Authority Mid-year Population Estimates 

The initial idea for my PhD was to develop on my masters work, however since then my research interest has now focused on the measuring the internal migratory patterns of young people in the UK.

Research interests

My research interests centre on the statistical element of developed world demography in particular the methodologies behind population estimates and projections. I also have a great interest in the theories and concepts behind the components of population change with a particular interest in internal and international migration.

PhD Title: The Migratory Transitions Of Students Into Higher Educational Institutions in the United Kingdom


There has been very little work conducted on the migratory patterns of the large student population in the United Kingdom and their transitions into Higher Education (HE). This thesis aims to fill this void in the literature by providing three new and unique policy relevant sections of analysis.

The first analysis puts forward a typology that can be used to categorise the different migration transitions that a person can undertake in order to attend a Higher Educational Institution (HEI). Using this typology, the results demonstrate that, the previously assumed traditional transition to higher education of migrating away from the parental home to study at a HEI is no longer the majority transition experienced by HE students in the UK. Secondly, a cluster analysis is used categorise each Local Authority into one of seven groups specifying their student migration characteristics. The results show a clear difference in the migration outcomes of students from the South of the UK compared to the North, with the latter being less likely to migrate.

The second analysis section uses a series of statistical techniques to gain an in-depth understanding of how student migration transitions are impacted by the student’s characteristics (age, ethnicity and social background), the course they study and the institute they attended. The results indicate that there was a strong statistically significant relationship between student migration transition and social background status and ethnicity. Students from less advantaged families and non-white ethnic groups were much more likely to attend a local university or commute than their more advantaged white counterparts. The results also indicate that the distance migrated by students was impacted by the individuals ethnicity, social background and age. Distance was also affected by course studied and institution attended, with more prestigious and remote universities attracting students the furthest distances.

The third analysis section uses econometric techniques to measure the impact of student migration on future labour marker outcome after graduation. These final result indicate there was no difference in future labour marker outcomes between migrants and non-migrants and therefore the inequalities observed throughout the higher education system in regards to the student migration transition do not have an impact after graduation.

Supervisors: Jakub Bijak and Dr Sylke Schnepf

PopFest 2013 Committee Member

Tutor in:
DEMO1001- Introduction to Demographic Methods;
STAT1003- Introduction to Quantitative Methods;
DEMO3003- Migration and DEMO 3008- Population and Environment

Mr Neil Bailey
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute University of Southampton Highfield Southampton SO17 1BJ UK
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