If a patient has serious disease of a major organ such as of the liver, heart or kidney, then typically he or she will be placed on a waiting list for a transplant. Because there is a shortage of organs available for transplantation, not all patients on the waiting list will receive a transplant.
It is therefore important to understand the benefit in terms of a patient's chance of survival of having a transplant relative to remaining on the waiting list. This research is developing a model that takes account of a variety of prognostic factors relating to the characteristics of the recipient and organ donor. New statistical methods are needed because the allocation of available organs tends to be given to patients who are most ill.
The project is funded by a grant from NHS Blood and Transplant and involves a supervisory team of Dave Collett (S3RI), Alan Kimber (S3RI) and Paul Roderick (Medicine) together with PhD student Natalie Staplin.
A related project supervised by Alan Kimber and using data from NHS Blood and Transplant involves the modelling of survival of corneal grafts and of heart transplant patients using health indicators (such as kidney function) that are measured during follow up after transplantation and which may change over time.
Professosr David Collett
Associate Director, Statistics and Clinical Audit, NHS Blood and Transplant, Bristol