Decisions, decisions, decisions. How to include the vagaries of choice? Seminar

By Professor Stephen Turnock

The complex interplay of maritime structural response and dynamic fluid loading results in a significant engineering challenge. Yet if there is limited appreciation of the role of human decisions in specifying the correct design scenario or in operational constraints there are risks of wasted effort, over engineered systems or of potential failures. The example of the race tactics and strategy required in fleet sailing events is used to examine the use of Bayesian models for the choice of when to tack in upwind/downwind fleet races. The environmental unknown of the wind with its varying strength and direction is combined with a four degree of freedom unsteady yacht force/moment simulation. A Bayesian decision framework has been developed that allows varying degrees of expertise on behalf of the yacht tactician to be captured. The eventual aim is to develop a realistic fleet to challenge the skills of a sailor when racing against these ‘roboyachts’. The results of virtual race series when compared with realistic patterns of behaviours from actual yacht fleet races demonstrate good capture of the combined stochastic nature of the environment and human response. In considering the future role of increased autonomy in the maritime environment the lessons learnt from this study are used to project how such models of human choice can be included in the design of future systems.