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The University of Southampton
Economic, Social and Political Sciences

Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations for Developing and Developed Countries Seminar

Origin:
Social Statistics and Demography
Time:
12:00
Date:
13 November 2013
Venue:
Building 58 room 2097

Event details

Social Statistics & Demography Seminars

This is a joint CPC and Care Life Cycle (CLC) seminar

I will describe Bayesian population reconstruction, a new method for estimating past populations by age and sex, with fully probabilistic statements of uncertainty. It simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, vital rates and net migration from fragmentary data while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, it takes initial bias-corrected estimates of age-specific population counts, vital rates and net migration. The output is a joint posterior probability distribution which yields fully probabilistic interval estimates of past vital rates and population numbers by age and sex. It is designed for the kind of data commonly collected in demographic surveys and censuses and can be applied to countries with widely varying levels of data quality. This is joint work with Mark Wheldon, Patrick Gerland and Samuel Clark.

Speaker information

Adrian Raftery , University of Washington. Professor of Statistics and Sociology

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