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The University of Southampton
Economic, Social and Political Sciences

Bayesian projection of international migration for all countries Seminar

Social Statistics and Demography
13 June 2014
Building 58 Room 1023

For more information regarding this seminar, please email Mel Morgan – Centre Administrator at .

Event details

A joint CPC/S3RI seminar

Abstract: In this talk I present a method for probabilistic projection of international migration. The goal of this work is to produce projections of net migration for all countries extending out to the year 2100, similar to the projections in the United Nation's World Population Prospects. Migration is notoriously hard to predict, so quantification of uncertainty is especially important. We accomplish this with a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model fit to time series data for all countries.

Speaker information

Jonathan Azose , University of Washington. Department of Statistics

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