on Tue, Barry Mahon <mahons1_at_eircom.net> wrote:
> >Date: Mon, 9 Dec 2002 07:50:26 -0500
> >From: "Thomas J. Walker" <tjw_at_UFL.EDU>
> >Subject: Market outlook for STM publishers
> >
> >In case you want to know what Morgan Stanley market analysts think of
> >investing in STM publishing, read this:
> >
> >http://www.biblio-tech.com/uksg/SI_PD.cfm?PID=10&ArticleID=469
> >
> >Of course, they were probably pushing Enron and WorldCom not too long ago.
>
> One interesting item in there is the prediction that electronic delivery will free up
> resources to buy more content (i.e. good prospects for STM publishers). At the
> Online Conference in London last week a session on scholarly publishing seemed
> to show that this was not the case. The problem seems to be that we are
> increasingly recycling the same money, to buy journals, pay people like BioMed
> Central and/or set up archives, there is no new money. One consequence, no
> money (and maybe no incentive) to look at permanent availability, preservation of
> the record.
This is the "productivity paradox" first observed by
Baumol and termed "cost disease." The expectation that
cheaper technology will save money is met by the
reality that it invites more activity, much of it
labor-intensive. It is such an enormous business
phenomenon that it has been studied by the National
Academy of Sciences with little effect. In research you
may take, as an example, self-"archiving" and the huge
cost burden placed on readers drowning in unreviewed
drafts.
Best wishes,
Albert Henderson
Former Editor, PUBLISHING RESEARCH QUARTERLY 1994-2000
<70244.1532_at_compuserve.com>
Received on Tue Dec 10 2002 - 18:10:35 GMT