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The University of Southampton
CORMSIS Centre for Operational Research, Management Sciences and Information Systems

The application of hybrid modelling to determine costs of dementia care and beneficial intervention effects -- Talke by Dave Evenden Event

18 October 2018
Building 54 (Maths), Room 8031

For more information regarding this event, please email Sally Brailsford at .

Event details

Dementia is an irreversible neurological condition associated with high levels of care costs as symptoms progress and severity worsens. To better support planning of appropriate care services for people with dementia, a computer simulation has been developed. This takes advantage of the hybrid modelling capabilities of the AnyLogic software package to capture the known risks and potential interventions. The model estimates population-level effects using stocks and flows to estimate the number of people with dementia, taking into account population growth and increasing life expectancy, along with age-related incidence of dementia and mortality. Individual severity progression trajectories are modelled using agent-based methods, informed by mixed effects regression, allowing individual responses to medication and lifestyle interventions to be included. Individual outcomes are aggregated at the population level and by progression type, to provide summaries of the number of people affected, their care costs, QALYs, and years with dementia. The beneficial effects of treatment and lifestyle interventions are presented.

Speaker information

Dave Evenden ,University of Southampton,--prior to starting his healthcare modelling PhD, Dave was a Chartered Engineer with over 30 years experience in contract R&D in high-tech electronic systems. Projects typically involved a senior role in system test, customer engagement, project acceptance, and contractual project delivery. During an earlier career break, Dave undertook an Operational Research MSc at the University of Southampton. His 2003 summer project in healthcare modelling won the May Hicks award for best PG project. Two papers were published, one of which won the Goodeve Medal for best paper published in JORS. Now, after a fascinating 4 years, Dave is awaiting news on the fate of his PhD thesis having passed his viva with minor corrections in June 2018. He has just commenced (among other things) a bridging fellowship in Health Sciences intended to promote the role of simulation modelling in planning healthcare services for frail and older people.

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