The application of hybrid modelling to determine costs of dementia care and beneficial intervention effects -- Talke by Dave Evenden Event

Event details

Dementia is an irreversible neurological condition associated with high levels of care costs as symptoms progress and severity worsens. To better support planning of appropriate care services for people with dementia, a computer simulation has been developed. This takes advantage of the hybrid modelling capabilities of the AnyLogic software package to capture the known risks and potential interventions. The model estimates population-level effects using stocks and flows to estimate the number of people with dementia, taking into account population growth and increasing life expectancy, along with age-related incidence of dementia and mortality. Individual severity progression trajectories are modelled using agent-based methods, informed by mixed effects regression, allowing individual responses to medication and lifestyle interventions to be included. Individual outcomes are aggregated at the population level and by progression type, to provide summaries of the number of people affected, their care costs, QALYs, and years with dementia. The beneficial effects of treatment and lifestyle interventions are presented.