- Primary position:
- Lecturer in Demography
- Other positions:
- Co-ordinator, BSc in Population and Geography
I joined Social Sciences, University of Southampton in February 2009. Between 2003 and 2008, I was a researcher in the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research (CEFMR) in Warsaw. In the period 2001–2003, I worked in the Demographic Unit of the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (UN ICTY) in the Hague, analysing population consequences of the 1990s armed conflicts in the Balkans.
I hold PhD in economics (with specialisation in demography) and an MSc Quantitative Methods and Information Systems, both obtained from the Warsaw School of Economics.
"My research interests focus on the applications of quantitative methods in demography."
The University of Southampton's electronic library (e-prints)
Conference or Workshop Item
My research interests focus on the applications of quantitative methods in demography, especially in migration and population forecasting, agent-based population modelling, demography of conflict and violence and international migration studies, as well as on research on population ageing, mortality, links between population and the environment and demographic uncertainty. In particular, I am interested in the methods of mathematical statistics, especially in the Bayesian approach, including econometric modelling, stochastic processes and decision-making under uncertainty.
Work in progress
Springer has just published my book entitled Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. As migration is the most volatile component of population change, any demographic forecasts are in need of suitable predictions of future migration flows, together with an appropriate uncertainty assessment. In the book I present an overview of existing theories, methods and models used for forecasting migration flows, followed by a proposition of a forecasting framework based on the Bayesian approach, and then a discussion of the predictions from the point of view of forecast users (decision-makers).
In terms of more general research activities, I am contributing to the works of the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). Specifically, I participate in the research of strand 4 of the CPC, devoted to 'Modelling population growth and enhancing the evidence base for policy', as well as in an EPSRC project Care Life Cycle, devoted to the application of methods of the complexity science in the areas of demography, health and social care. In the latter project, I am leading a work strand on uncertainty in agent-based models of population.
Between 2009 and 2012, I was also participating in a research project, IMEM (Integrated Modelling of European Migration), funded by the NORFACE programme. The aim of the project was to model population flows among EU and EFTA countries and to assess the uncertainty of the estimates by means of Bayesian statistics, formally incorporating the expert judgement.
In the winter semester of 2012-13 I was teaching Population and the Environment (DEMO3008) and contributing to Introduction to Demographic Methods (DEMO1001). In the summer semester, I am teaching Population Projections (DEMO6016), as well as Demography of Conflict and Violence (DEMO6025).
Richard Kapend, Assessing demographic trends before, during and in the aftermath of the 1998–2004 armed conflict in DR Congo (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2010–2013; supervised jointly with Andrew Hinde)
George Disney, Improving the quality of international migration statistics in the UK (ESRC CASE studentship for 2010–2013; supervised jointly with James Brown)
Amie Kamanda, The demography of conflict in Sierra Leone, 1991–2002 (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2011–2014; supervised jointly with Sabu Padmadas)
Sarah Lubman, The policy of dispersal of asylum seekers in the UK since 1999 (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2011–2014; supervised jointly with Nyovani Madise)
Jason Hilton, Simulation methods for demography (EPSRC ICSS studentship; supervised jointly with Jason Noble, Electronics and Computer Science, 2012–2015)
Neil Bailey, An investigation into the migratory patterns and outcomes of young people to institutes of higher education in the UK between 2007 and 2011 (ESRC 1+3 studentship; supervised since 2012, jointly with Sylke Schnepf, 2011-2014)
Dr Jakub Bijak
Social Statistics & Demography
University of Southampton
Room Number: 58/3035
Telephone: (023) 8059 7486
Facsimile: (023) 8059 3858