Micro-level simulation models for health and social policy / SNACK Study Seminar

I will present micro-level approach to care modelling by describing two different simulation models and five different studies.

The first model is a total population model with a focus on social contacts. The model, Microsim, is used for investigating the effect of interventions against infectious disease.

The second model, SESIM-LEV, simulates 300 000 individuals and has a focus on the economic consequences of potential changes in the tax- and transfer-systems.

Microsim is located at the Swedish Institute for Communicable Disease Control. It is built in C++ and uses real population data from Statistics Sweden. The model has been used to forecast and evaluate the effect of mass-vaccination against A(H1N1) 2009.

Sesim-LEV runs at the governmental offices in Sweden as is mainly used by the ministry of finance and health and social affairs. In two steps the model has been extended to include health and consumption health care, first by letting the persons health status affect risk for early retirement, sick leave and some health care consumption, and then by having the health status affect the death risk and a more types of consumption of health and elderly care. Recently, tobacco smoking has been added as one of the explanatory variables for the individual’s health status making it possible to investigate long-term effects of various smoke cessation policies.