DEMO6022 Demographic Methods 2
The module will cover a range of more advanced methods of demographic analysis, including the use of type 1 and type 2 rates in demography, parity-specific measurement, tempo-adjustment, sources of bias in event history data, multiple decrement life tables, empirical and relational model life tables, stable population theory, population dynamics, population projection and forecasting, and uncertainty in population forecasts.
Aims and Objectives
To introduce students to more advanced demographic methods and to illustrate their application to official statistical purposes and related demographic questions.
Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:
- Interpret and apply parity specific fertility measures, and appreciate current debates regarding the measurement of fertility;
- Critically evaluate the potential biases involved in analysing event history data, and the methods to handle these;
- Construct a multiple decrement life table, and to eliminate or modify a cause of decrement;
- Explain and assess the use of model schedules in demography;
- Calculate a stable population and analyse the basic population dynamics;
- Critically assess the principles of population projection, and sources of error and uncertainty in projections and forecasts, methods of their evaluation, and the range of projection methods used by official statistical agencies;
- Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of problem solving: using spreadsheets and open access demographic software for a range of demographic tasks.
Dependent and independent multiple decrement life tables and other advanced life table methods. Health expectancies. Introduction to event history analysis and birth histories. Additional fertility measures: parity progression ratios and birth history measures. Fertility and reproduction estimated from cross-sectional or longitudinal surveys. Model age patterns and stable population theory, with applications to historical data and populations lacking complete vital statistics. Models for measuring fertility changes. Estimation of net migration using stable population models and empirical data. Models for demographic estimation when data are incomplete or inaccurate. Matrix population models. The Leslie matrix. Introduction to multistate demography. Demographic uncertainty and probabilistic population forecasting.
This module is run as a week-long short course, a component of the MSc Official Statistics.
Learning and Teaching
Teaching and learning methods
The course will be taught by lectures and extended small-group practical classes. Paper copies of the lecture slides and class exercises will be handed out at the beginning of the course. Some indicative reading is given at the end of this outline, and further sources will be mentioned in lectures.
|Total study time||100|
Resources & Reading list
Rowland, D. (2003). Demographic Methods and Concepts.
Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P. and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes.
Siegel, J.S. (2002). Applied Demography: applications to business, government, law and public policy.
Siegel, J.S., and Swanson, D.A. (2004). The Methods and materials of demography.
|Exam (2 hours)||100%|
|Exam (2 hours)||100%|
Repeat type: Internal & External
Prerequisites: DEMO6020 or DEMO6028