The University of Southampton

MANG6059 Health Care Modelling

Module Overview

This module will introduce you to the concepts of modelling for healthcare and will explore both disease (patient-progress) models and organizational (patient-flow) models. Examples of patient-progress models include models for HIV/AIDS, Diabetes and Asthma. Patient-flow models include models for the planning and management of hospital beds, operating theatres and provision of resources in outpatient clinics. A historical outline will be given on the use, practicalities and limitations of both deterministic and stochastic models. Markov, semi-Markov and simulation techniques will be discussed and case studies on various topics presented. Through computer workshop sessions, you will be able to develop and run healthcare models of your own.

Aims and Objectives

Module Aims

The module aims to encourage you to consider what makes a robust, sufficiently detailed and practical model for use by healthcare professionals, and how such tools can help influence health policy.

Learning Outcomes

Knowledge and Understanding

Having successfully completed this module, you will be able to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of:

  • appreciate a variety of approaches to modelling for healthcare
  • 2. understand the process of mathematical modelling in this context;
  • develop and run healthcare models.
Transferable and Generic Skills

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

  • By the end of the module you will develop your ability in the following skills: modelling, problem solving, IT.
Subject Specific Intellectual and Research Skills

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

  • evaluate and criticize models and their use in the health sector;
  • demonstrate an awareness of the different application in this field;
  • appreciate and identify the characteristics of mathematically robust, necessarily detailed and practical models for use by healthcare professionals.


Session 1 Introduction to healthcare modelling, Patient progress models, Computer Workshop: Discrete Event Simulation Models, Session 2 Queueing Models in Healthcare, Managing Scheduled and Unscheduled Demand in Healthcare, System Dynamics (SD) and Hybrid Models, Modelling Patient Flows: Introduction to NHS, Computer Workshop: Stella Models, Session 3 Presentations from guest speakers.

Learning and Teaching

Teaching and learning methods

Lectures, practical exercises, computer workshops, private study. Guest speakers

Independent Study63
Total study time75

Resources & Reading list

Green L. (2006). Queuing Analysis in Healthcare, Patients Flow: Reducing Delay in Healthcare Delivery, edited by Randolph W. Hall. 

Appointment scheduling in healthcare: Challenges and opportunities. 

Advanced Access: reducing waiting and delays in primary care. 



MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%


MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%


MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%

Linked modules

Prerequisites: MANG2006 and MANG6122

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