Modelling Household Dynamics for Epidemiological Simulation Seminar

Abstract: The household has long been recognised as a key focus of infection transmission, and interventions are often directed at household members in the hope of reducing disease spread.  Mathematical models serve as a valuable tool in assessing such interventions, but their usefulness relies on models incorporating the relevant factors that affect transmission.  Traditional compartmental models of disease spread are limited in their ability to represent the complex structure of real populations.  By developing more realistic models of household dynamics and contact patterns, we seek to better understand historic patterns of disease incidence, and design more effective strategies for disease control.

We have developed an agent-based model that explicitly represents the household context of individuals and the demographic processes that modify household composition.  This model enables the simulation of disease spread in more realistic populations, with the flexibility to explore various demographic scenarios.  In this talk, I will describe the design and validation of the population model, and its application to assessing household-based interventions against pertussis (whooping cough).