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The University of Southampton
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute

"Discrete event simulation for assessing the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions: application to abdominal aortic aneurysm screening", Dr Michael Sweeting (University of Leicester) Seminar

S3RI Seminar
14:00 - 15:00
10 January 2019
Building 54, Room 7035, Lecture Theatre 7B, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, SO17 1BJ

For more information regarding this seminar, please email Dr Helen Ogden at .

Event details

Cohort-level Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modelling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. In this talk Michael will describe the Screening Women for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (SWAN) project, where they undertook a health economic assessment of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) screening in women. A previous multi-state Markov model of AAA screening in men was adapted to create a more flexible discrete event simulation (DES) model. Information from published literature or relevant databases was used to obtain input parameters for this model relevant to women. Michael will describe how the DES model was developed to allow the progression of AAA to be modelled continuously using a mixed-effects growth model of aortic diameter. This allowed individual AAAs to grow at different rates and for different surveillance, diagnosis and intervention strategies based on observed diameter measurements to be easily compared. Monte Carlo error in the estimation of incremental costs and effects was reduced using two complementary approaches; firstly by simulating pairs of "twins" with similar characteristics, one invited to screening and one not; and secondly by oversampling individuals who have an AAA at screening. Finally, based on findings from this project he will address whether population AAA screening in women is likely to be cost-effective and provide recommendations for researchers wishing to conduct their own DES modelling.

Speaker information

Dr Michael Sweeting, University of Leicester. Dr Sweeting's research interests include: Utilising repeat longitudinal measurements in the modelling of time-to-event data, especially in a joint modelling or landmark analysis framework; Health economic decision modelling with application to screening programmes; Analysis of randomised controlled trials, particularly surgical trials; Evidence synthesis (including individual patient data meta-analysis); and Design of early phase clinical trials.

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