Uncertainty and complexity of migration Event

An increasingly interconnected world

Human migration is very complex. In our increasingly interconnected world, people around the globe choose to move for many different reasons. Some do so in order to escape poverty, war or persecution; others seek new opportunities through jobs, study, family reunion, or try to improve their quality of life.

Migration can impact economies and societies, trigger policy responses, and cause political debate. Once it begins, migration often leads to further mobility, and attempts to restrain it can often result in unintended consequences.

Unpredictable and uncertain

Due to the inherent complexity of international migration, it is also one of the most unpredictable and uncertain population processes and a fascinating area of study. According to the UN, roughly 3.4 per cent of the global population is foreign-born. But migration measures, even in developed countries, are subject to a very high degree of uncertainty; there are different definitions of a long-term migrant and different policy structures which make producing comparable data a challenge.

Patterns of migration

Administrative systems also impact the accuracy and completeness of some of the data we rely on. Patterns of migration can also quickly alter as a result of changing political and economic circumstances, meaning that migration can be a very difficult process to analyse, predict, and control.
In this session, our experts will explore some of the major challenges surrounding migration, including decision-making and accurate methods of measurement and prediction. We will also look at the different ways migration can impact policy, which takes the complexity and uncertainty of the process for what it is: neither something to ignore nor fight against, but rather an inherent feature of mobility that needs to be acknowledged and managed.

In Conversation

This event is the first in our Public Lecture Series to take the form of an 'In Conversation' session, with Jakub Bijak, Professor of Statistical Demography, and Jon Simmons, of the Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate, examining the complexities of migration in a discussion facilitated by journalist and University of Southampton alumnus Jason Cowley.

Speaker profiles

Professor Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton

Jakub is Professor of statistical demography, with 17 years of work experience in academia and international civil service. His research mainly focuses on demographic uncertainty, population models and forecasts, and the demography of armed conflict. He has been awarded the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015) and the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) for his work on migration modelling and forecasting. He is currently leading a European Research Council (ERC) project on Bayesian agent-based population studies, developing innovative simulation models of migration, and co-leads the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Population Change modelling strand.

Jon Simmons, Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate

Jon is the Deputy Director for analysis on migration and border policy in the Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate. He has spent more than two decades working in social policy analysis, providing advice across Government and internationally. In his current role, Jon oversees the publication and development of the immigration statistics and research reports. He also works closely with the Office for National Statistics and others involved in producing data on migration, and provides analytical advice to Home Office policy makers and Ministers.

Jason Cowley, journalist

Jason Cowley is a journalist, magazine editor and writer. He has been widely credited with transforming the fortunes of the New Statesman. He is a former editor of Granta and has worked in senior roles on The Times and Observer. According to the European Press Prize, “Cowley has succeeded in revitalising the New Statesman and re-establishing its position as an influential political and cultural weekly. He has given it an edge and a relevance to current affairs it hasn’t had for years.” In 2017, he was voted Editor of the Year – Politics and Current Affairs for the third time at the British Society of Magazine Editors awards. He is the author of a memoir, The Last Game, and a book of essays, Reaching for Utopia.