Consultation response | Victims of Modern Slavery Inquiry

Victims of Modern Slavery Inquiry

Department of Social Statistics & Demography

A response from the University of Southampton | December 2016

 

Submission from Professor Peter van der Heijden, University of Southampton

1. The focus of the Committee’s Inquiry is the how victims of modern slavery can access support and benefits. In order for the Government to plan and deliver services to these victims, it needs to have a better understanding on the size of problem and the characteristics of those victims. This is not a straightforward task, as modern slavery is by nature hidden and official statistics do not capture its extent.

2. The size of the problem was investigated for the year 2013 by the Home Office. The Government’s 2014 Modern Slavery Strategy [1] notes:

“The Home Office has been working to establish whether it is possible to estimate the number of cases of modern slavery that have not come to our attention in order to enable us to provide an estimate of the potential scale of modern slavery in the UK. Based upon analysis using established statistical methods, the Home Office Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Bernard Silverman, has estimated that in 2013 there were between 10,000 – 13,000 potential victims of modern slavery in the UK7. Whilst this figure can only be an estimate and should be considered as such, it is consistent with our view that the scale of modern slavery in the UK is significant and demands a comprehensive strategic response.”

3. An analysis on new data is urgently needed for three reasons:

• Firstly, the state-of-the-art methodology used by Professor Silverman leads to outcomes that have a relatively large range (from 10,000 to 13,000). An analysis on data from, for example, the year 2015 can give further insight into the size of the problem. We note that for the Netherlands the estimate we provided to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) [2] is much larger, and this is unexpected.
• Secondly, the estimate is now three years old and more recent information will be valuable in drawing up plans for support.
• Thirdly, and most importantly, the analysis should be carried out including information on the characteristics of the victims, such as their gender, age and country of birth. Such information is necessary for defining an appropriate strategy to handle the problem. For example, it may very well be that the unobserved part of the victim population may be relatively much larger for females than for males, so analysing the number of cases that did not come to attention is needed.

4. The UNODC and the Walk Free Foundation have recently signed an agreement to develop a better understanding of the prevalence in trafficking people for slavery across a number of countries [3], which we will be carrying out. New data from the UK could also contribute to this analysis and help lead to a better international picture of the problem.

References:

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/modern-slavery-strategy

[2] Van Dijk, J. and P.G. M. van der Heijden (2016). On the potential of Multiple Systems Estimation for estimating the number of victims of human trafficking across the world. Written for the UNODC, where it appeared as Research Brief ‘Multiple Systems Estimation for estimating the number of victims of human trafficking across the world’. See https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/tip/TiPMSE.pdf.

[3] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/unodc-and-walk-free-foundation-join-forces-to-estimate_us_5840919fe4b04587de5de857