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The University of Southampton
Mathematical Sciences

Research Group: Healthcare Modelling

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Healthcare modelling has been a feature of our research for many years, in collaboration with colleagues from the Business School (through CORMSIS). Our modelling is both stochastic and deterministic in nature, and ranges from the spread of diseases, to flows of patients within healthcare systems and to logistics. Current research areas include patient flow modelling, supply chain and logistics in healthcare and infectious disease modelling.

Healthcare Modelling
Infectious Disease Modelling

Infectious Disease Modelling

Building accurate models of the transmission and progression of infectious diseases within a population allows us to determine the best interventions to control their spread. We have built models of tuberculosis, HIV and dengue fever to help decision makers understand the impacts of different control and treatment interventions, as well as the costs associated with them. This enables more informed decision-making at the national level when allocating scare resources.

Patient Flow Modelling

Patient Flow Modelling

Models of flows of patients within a healthcare system can be used by decision makers to make best use of scarce resources such as manpower and expensive equipment, as well as to improve patient outcomes and experiences. On the large scale, we have used choice models to estimate flows of patients to the different hospitals in a region, in both urgent and pre-planned conditions. More specifically, we are currently working on models for the flows of patients to and within a breast clinic. Recent work has also included modelling the use of antiretroviral therapy for HIV treatment in Zambia in order to determine the long-term costs associated with its administration.

Supply Chain and Logistics in Healthcare

Supply Chain and Logistics in Healthcare

The healthcare arena provides many examples of supply chains and logistics, such of those for blood products, which are regarded as high value perishable goods. We have built a series of mathematical programming models to optimise distribution of blood products in conditions of shortage, as may occur in a developing country - results have been used to aid decision makers in the Thai Red Cross. Programming models are also being developed to find optimal locations for HIV/AIDS blood sample testing in a network of laboratories in South Africa.

Image credit: (c) NHS UK.

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