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Research project

Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty for Dispersion Models

  • Lead researcher:
  • Research funder:
    Defence Threat Reduction Agency
  • Status:
    Not active

Project overview

Transport and Dispersion (T&D) models are used to predict the downwind hazard generated by a Chemical or Biological (CB) release. This hazard area is used to make policy decisions and to warn the population under threat. Due to the stochastic nature of the meteorology on which the T&D models depend, accurate and rapid generation of the hazard area is difficult. The proposed research uses statistical design of experiments methods to develop an algorithm to enable rapid prediction of the hazard area while incorporating an accurate estimate of meteorological uncertainty.

Staff

Lead researcher

Professor Dave Woods

Professor of Statistics

Research interests

  • Design of experiments
  • Bayesian statistics
  • Statistical computing
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