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Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute
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Professor Jakub Bijak MSc, PhD

Joint Head of Social Statistics and Demography, Professor of Statistical Demography

Professor Jakub Bijak's photo

Professor Jakub Bijak is joint Head of Department of Social Statistics and Demography and Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton.

My research interests focus on the methods of statistical demography, in particular surrounding migration, which can help deal with the uncertainty of demographic phenomena.

I joined Social Sciences, University of Southampton in February 2009. Between 2003 and 2008, I was a researcher in the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research (CEFMR) in Warsaw. In the period 2001–2003, I worked in the Demographic Unit of the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (UN ICTY) in the Hague, analysing population consequences of the 1990s armed conflicts in the Balkans.

I hold PhD in economics (with specialisation in demography) and an MSc Quantitative Methods and Information Systems, both obtained from the Warsaw School of Economics.

I have received the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015), conferred by Allianz SE, the Berlin Demography Forum, and Population Europe for “outstanding research on the causes and consequences of population developments in Europe”. An interview following the award ceremony can be watched via Population Europe Inter-Faces on YouTube. I have also been awarded the Jerzy Z. Holzer medal of the Committee of Demographic Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences (2007), for contributions to the Polish demography.

Professional activities

Research interests

My current research interests focus on the applications of quantitative methods in demography and studies of demographic uncertainty, especially in migration and population estimation and forecasting, agent-based population modelling, international migration studies, demography of conflict and violence, and paleodemography. My previous research also includes methods for modelling human mortality and population ageing, as well as asymptotic and transient features of population dynamics. In methodological terms, I am interested in the methods of mathematical statistics, especially in the Bayesian approach, including econometric modelling, stochastic processes and decision-making under uncertainty.

I currently lead a project on Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies, funded by a Consolidator Grant of the European Research Council, a Horizon 2020 QuantMig project consortium, and am also a co-leader of the modelling strand of the ESRC Centre for Population Change.

A paper on 'Paleodemographic analysis of age at death for a population of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods', with Sylwia Łukasik, Marta Krenz‐Niedbała and Vitaly Sinika has been recently published in American Journal of Physical Anthropology (open access) - see the video abstract below.

Research projects:

ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC) strand on "modelling population growth and enhancing the evidence base for policy" (2009-2013, 2nd edition 2014-2018)

EPSRC Care Life Cycle (2010-2015)

ESRC Future of Scotland Project, an additional activity of the Centre for Population Change (2013-2014)

Integrated Modelling of International Migration (2009-2012)

Bayesian forecasting of immigration into European countries

How does natural and anthropogenic disturbance change human population growth? (2014-2017)

Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies (BAPS): Transforming Simulation Models of Human Migration

QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy

Joint Head of Department, Social Statistics and Demography


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Book Chapters




Working Papers

In the academic year 2020-21, I will be contributing to Philosophy of Social Science Research (RESM6001) and Demographic Methods 2 (DEMO6022), as well as organising a short online course on Agent-Based Modelling for Social Research.

PhD Supervision

Dr Richard Kapend, Assessing demographic trends before, during and in the aftermath of the 1998–2004 armed conflict in DR Congo (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2010–2013; supervised jointly with Andrew Hinde) (PhD obtained in May 2014)

Dr George Disney, Improving the quality of international migration statistics in the UK (ESRC CASE studentship for 2010–2013) (PhD obtained in January 2015)

Dr Amie Kamanda, The demography of conflict in Sierra Leone, 1991–2002 (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2011–2014; supervised jointly with Sabu Padmadas) (PhD obtained in November 2015)

Dr Sarah Nurse
, The policy of dispersal of asylum seekers in the UK since 1999 (ESRC 1+3 studentship for 2011–2016; supervised jointly with Nyovani Madise) (PhD obtained in May 2019)

Dr Jason Hilton, Simulation methods for demography (EPSRC ICSS studentship; supervised jointly with Jason Noble, Electronics and Computer Science, 2012–2015) (PhD obtained in December 2016)

Dr Neil Bailey, An investigation into the migratory patterns and outcomes of young people to institutes of higher education in the UK between 2007 and 2011 (ESRC 1+3 studentship; supervised since 2012, jointly with Sylke Schnepf, 2011-2015) (PhD obtained in April 2016)

Dr Jonathan Gray, Cognitively Plausible Agent Based Modelling with Bayesian Inference and Descriptive Decision Theoretic Agents (EPSRC ICSS studentship; supervised jointly with Seth Bullock, Electronics and Computer Science, 2013–2016) (PhD obtained in May 2017)

Andrew Hind, Internal Migration in the UK, its relation with education, and the development of better probabilistic sub-national population forecasts (supervised jointly with Jonathan Forster, Maths, 2015-2023)

Francesco Rampazzo, Transnational transition to Adulthood: New insights from social media data (supervised jointly with Agnese Vitali, 2017–2021)


(L-R): George, Richard, Jakub, Amie and Sarah
PhD Students of Dr Bijak
Jakub and Jason at the UCM 2012
Jakub and Jason at the UCM 2012
Professor Jakub Bijak
Building 58, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom

Room Number : 58/4025

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