MATH6011 Forecasting

Module Overview

The module will introduce students to time series models and associated forecasting methods.

Aims and Objectives

Module Aims

• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods; • show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data; • give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting; • convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..

Learning Outcomes

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

Formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions
Use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data
Appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques
Produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution

Syllabus

Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models

Learning and Teaching

Teaching and learning methods

Lectures and computer workshops.

Type	Hours
Teaching	16
Independent Study	58
Total study time	74

Resources & Reading list

Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression Abalysis.

Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (1994). An Introduction to Management Science.

Wetherill, GB. (1981). Intermediate Statistical Methods.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications.

Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (2012). Forecasting: principles and practice.

Janert, P.K. (2011). Data Analysis with Open Source Tools.

Gilchrist, W.G. (1976). Statistical Forecasting.

Assessment

Summative

Method	Percentage contribution
Coursework	100%

Repeat

Method	Percentage contribution
Coursework	100%

Referral

Method	Percentage contribution
Coursework	100%

Repeat Information

Repeat type: Internal & External