MATH6011 Forecasting
Module Overview
The module will introduce students to time series models and associated forecasting methods.
Aims and Objectives
Module Aims
• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods; • show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data; • give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting; • convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..
Learning Outcomes
Learning Outcomes
Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:
- Formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions
- Use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data
- Appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques
- Produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution
Syllabus
Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models
Learning and Teaching
Teaching and learning methods
Lectures and computer workshops.
| Type | Hours |
|---|---|
| Independent Study | 58 |
| Teaching | 16 |
| Total study time | 74 |
Resources & Reading list
Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications.
Wetherill, GB. (1981). Intermediate Statistical Methods.
Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (1994). An Introduction to Management Science.
Gilchrist, W.G. (1976). Statistical Forecasting.
Janert, P.K. (2011). Data Analysis with Open Source Tools.
Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (2012). Forecasting: principles and practice.
Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression Abalysis.
Assessment
Summative
| Method | Percentage contribution |
|---|---|
| Coursework | 100% |
Repeat
| Method | Percentage contribution |
|---|---|
| Coursework | 100% |
Referral
| Method | Percentage contribution |
|---|---|
| Coursework | 100% |
Repeat Information
Repeat type: Internal & External