The University of Southampton
Courses

# MATH6011 Forecasting

## Module Overview

The module will introduce students to time series models and associated forecasting methods.

### Aims and Objectives

#### Module Aims

• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods; • show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data; • give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting; • convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..

#### Learning Outcomes

##### Knowledge and Understanding

Having successfully completed this module, you will be able to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of:

• Formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions
• Use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data
• Appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques
##### Subject Specific Practical Skills

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

• Produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution

### Syllabus

Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models

### Learning and Teaching

TypeHours
Teaching16
Independent Study59
Total study time75

Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (2012). Forecasting: principles and practice.

Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression Abalysis.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications.

Wetherill, GB. (1981). Intermediate Statistical Methods.

Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (1994). An Introduction to Management Science.

Gilchrist, W.G. (1976). Statistical Forecasting.

Janert, P.K. (2011). Data Analysis with Open Source Tools.

### Assessment

#### Summative

MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%

#### Referral

MethodPercentage contribution
Coursework 100%

#### Repeat Information

Repeat type: Internal & External

### Costs

#### Costs associated with this module

Students are responsible for meeting the cost of essential textbooks, and of producing such essays, assignments, laboratory reports and dissertations as are required to fulfil the academic requirements for each programme of study.

In addition to this, students registered for this module typically also have to pay for:

##### Books and Stationery equipment

Course texts are provided by the library and there are no additional compulsory costs associated with the module

Please also ensure you read the section on additional costs in the University’s Fees, Charges and Expenses Regulations in the University Calendar available at www.calendar.soton.ac.uk.

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