MATH6011 Forecasting
Module Overview
The module will introduce students to time series models and associated forecasting methods.
Aims and Objectives
Module Aims
• introduce the student to time series models and associated forecasting methods; • show how such models and methods can be implemented on a spreadsheet to analyse time series data; • give an appreciation of the different fields of application of time series analysis and forecasting; • convey the value of such quantitatively based methods for solving realistic practical problems..
Learning Outcomes
Knowledge and Understanding
Having successfully completed this module, you will be able to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of:
- Formulate time series models and construct Excel spreadsheet-based versions
- Use spreadsheet techniques to fit and analyse such models to data
- Appreciate both the capabilities and the limitations of such computer based techniques
Subject Specific Practical Skills
Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:
- Produce well-structure assignment reports describing problem formulation and solution
Syllabus
Time Series Models: Decomposition, Analysis and Removal of Trends and Seasonality Exponential Smoothing Methods: Single Exponential, Holt and Holt-Winters Methods Simple and Multiple Regression Techniques Box-Jenkins Methods for ARIMA models
Learning and Teaching
| Type | Hours |
|---|---|
| Independent Study | 59 |
| Teaching | 16 |
| Total study time | 75 |
Resources & Reading list
Gilchrist, W.G. (1976). Statistical Forecasting.
Wetherill, GB. (1981). Intermediate Statistical Methods.
Anderson, R.A., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (1994). An Introduction to Management Science.
Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (2012). Forecasting: principles and practice.
Janert, P.K. (2011). Data Analysis with Open Source Tools.
Draper, N.R. and Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression Abalysis.
Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications.
Assessment
Summative
| Method | Percentage contribution |
|---|---|
| Coursework | 100% |
Referral
| Method | Percentage contribution |
|---|---|
| Coursework | 100% |
Repeat Information
Repeat type: Internal & External
Costs
Costs associated with this module
Students are responsible for meeting the cost of essential textbooks, and of producing such essays, assignments, laboratory reports and dissertations as are required to fulfil the academic requirements for each programme of study.
In addition to this, students registered for this module typically also have to pay for:
Books and Stationery equipment
Course texts are provided by the library and there are no additional compulsory costs associated with the module
Please also ensure you read the section on additional costs in the University’s Fees, Charges and Expenses Regulations in the University Calendar available at www.calendar.soton.ac.uk.