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The University of Southampton
Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton

Research project: Hydrological Cycle Understanding (Horyuji PAGODA)

Currently Active: 

The project's full title is: HydrOlogical cYcle Understanding vIa Process-bAsed GlObal Detection, Attribution and prediction. PAGODA addresses the global dimensions of changes in the water cycle in the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The overarching aim of PAGODA is to increase confidence in projections of the changing water cycle on global-to-regional scales through a process-based detection, attribution and prediction.

PAGODA is a consortium comprising four UK universities, three NERC centres, the UK Met Office and three international partners, funded in round 1 of NERC’s Changing Water Cycle research programme and led by the University of Reading. PAGODA is divided into five work packages:

WP1: The Changing Water Cycle in GCMs

WP2: Processes controlling changes in the global water cycle

WP3: Observed changes in the global water cycle

WP4: Detection and Attribution

WP5: Robust user-relevant attribution assessments and projections of future changes in the water cycle, including extremes.

SOES researchers are contributing to two work packages. In WP2, we will investigate the processes that give rise to long-term salinity trends in the ocean component of a climate model. In WP3, we will synthesize existing observations of salinity and surface freshwater fluxes (evaporation minus precipitation, E-P), and examine the extent to which salinity trends are associated with a changing water cycle (i.e., changes in E-P). For further details on the research of PAGODA, please visit the project website at

Dates: May 2011 - April 2013

Funding agency: NERC (Natural Environment Research Council)

PI: Dr Robert Marsh
Postdoctoral research fellow: Dr Nikolaus Skliris

Related research groups

Physical Oceanography
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