About the project
Whilst numerous sea level rise projections exist, uncertainty over their upper bounds remain. This PhD will apply a regional, coupled modelling system to examine credible sea level rise maxima under different climate projects, and assess their impact on extreme sea level hazards including storm surge, wave conditions and tidal amplification.
Despite numerous projections of sea level rise under varying emission scenarios, significant uncertainty remains regarding the upper bounds of future, peak coastal water levels. This uncertainty poses a substantial challenge for planning and the resilience of long-lived coastal infrastructure, particularly in the energy sector. Coastal hazards, such as storm surges, compound flooding, overtopping, and erosion, are often triggered by meteorological events that combine multiple drivers like wind, rainfall, storm surge, and high waves (Bevacqua et al, 2020) and are exacerbated by rising sea levels.
The aim of this PhD project to explore what could constitute credible, future sea level rise maxima over relevant timescales under different climate projections and examine their impact on extreme sea level hazard components including storm surge, wave conditions and tidal amplification. The project will develop high-end scenarios across these hazard drivers and establish a framework for combining them using both coupled modelling and more theoretical storyline approaches (e.g., Palmer et al. 2024) to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. This will make use of a new regional coupled modelling system developed for the Northwest European Shelf, including atmospheric, wave, ocean and river models at km-scale (Lewis et al. 2019).
A set of climate hazards at the spatial scale of a weather-forecast will be produced, and analysed to examine surges, tides and waves. This will enable consistent and well-quantified assessments that extend from national scale to targeted site-specific information, with direct relevance to the UK’s coastal energy infrastructure, informing both adaptation planning and regulatory guidance.
Supervisors
As well as Dr Hachem Kassem from the University of Southampton (lead supervisor), you will also receive supervision from:
- Dr Lucy Bricheno: luic@noc.ac.uk, from the National Oceanographic Centre (NOC), Southampton.
- Dr Matthew Palmer: matthew.palmer@metoffice.gov.uk, from the Met Office/Bristol University.
- Dr Alejandro Pinto: alejandro.pintorascon@edfenergy.com, from the EDF Energy R&D UK Centre.
- Dr Dafni Sifnioti: dafni.sifnioti@edfenergy.com, from the EDF Energy R&D UK Centre.
Please contact the lead supervisor if you require further information about the project.
References
- Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K., Shepherd, T. G., Maraun, D., et al. (2020). More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, 1(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z
- Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A., Graham, J., et al. (2019). The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(6), 2357–2400. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019
- Palmer, M.D., Harrison, B.J., Gregory, J.M. et al. A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise. Climatic Change 177, 106 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1
