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The University of Southampton
Centre for Risk Research

Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters Event

Time:
16:00 - 17:00
Date:
12 June 2014
Venue:
University of Southampton, Building 2, Room 3041.

For more information regarding this event, please telephone Dr Ian Dawson on +44 (0)23 8059 8094 or email i.g.dawson@soton.ac.uk .

Event details

Dr James Reade, Lecturer in Economics at the University of Reading, will deliver a seminar that explores the extent to which bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters can accurately predict the outcome of uncertain events.

Prediction

In a seminar co-hosted by the Centre for Risk Research (CRR) and the Centre of Operational Research, Management Sciences & Information Systems (CORMSIS), James Reade will explore whether forecasts are better when more information about an event is available and when the type of event is considered more predictable. In his seminar, James will discuss his research in which he has examined forecasts made by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. James will explain how his research shows that, by and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Forecasting

James Reade received his PhD in Macroeconomic Forecasting under the supervision of David Hendry at University of Oxford, where James also worked as a Post-Doctoral Researcher. He subsequently took up a lecturership at University of Birmingham for fours years before moving to the University of Reading last summer. His research is primarily applied in nature, seeking to shed light on economic theories using the increasing masses of "big data".

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