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The University of Southampton
Centre for Risk Research

Beneath the Surface: Developing a New Framework for Updating Expert Risk and Reliability Judgements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUVs) Missions Event

Dr Mario Brito
26 April 2018
Room 4053, Building 4, Highfield Campus

Event details

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have proven to be feasible platforms for marine observations. Risk and reliability studies on the performance of these vehicles by different groups show a significant difference in reliability, with the observation that the outcomes depend on whether the vehicles are operated by developers or non-developers. We show that this difference in reliability is due to the failure prevention and correction procedures - risk mitigation - put in place by developers. However, no formalisation has been developed for updating the risk profile based on the expected effectiveness of the failure prevention and correction process. In this paper we present a generic Bayesian approach for updating the risk profile, based on the probability of failure prevention and correction and the number of subsequent deployments on which the failure does not occur. The approach, which applies whether the risk profile is captured in a parametric or nonparametric survival model, is applied to a real case study of the ISE Explorer AUV.

Speaker information

Dr Mario Brito, Centre for Risk Research, University of Southampton,Dr Mario Brito received a Licenciatura in aeronautical engineering from the University of Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal, in 1999, a postgraduate diploma in aircraft dynamics from the University of Cranfield, Cranfield, Bedfordshire, U.K., in 2003, and the Ph.D. degree in risk and reliability from Bristol University, Somerset, U.K., in 2009. In 2000, he joined Airbus UK, as Systems Engineer, to lead the design and evaluation of the manual fuel transfer system for the A380 aircraft. In 2001, he joined Stirling Dynamics Ltd., providing consultancy services in systems design. In January 2005, he was awarded an EPSRC grant to undertake research in safety critical software assurance at the Safety Critical Systems Research Centre, University of Bristol. In January 2008, he joined the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, U.K., as a Research Fellow in risk and reliability progressing to senior researcher. In October 2015 he joined the Southampton Business School as Lecturer in Risk Analysis and Risk Management. His research is focused on complex systems risk and reliability. Dr Brito is also a professional member of the Institute for Engineering and Technology (IET). He is currently the Deputy Chair of the Society of Underwater Technology Special Panel on Underwater Robotics and the Co-Chair of the European Safety and Reliability Association Committee on Marine and Offshore Technology.

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