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The University of Southampton
Centre for Risk Research

Academic articles

A selection of our academic publications from 2014 to the present.

To view full details of all the publications produced by the CRR members, please visit our Risk staff page.

Selected papers published in 2019

Chipulu, M., Ojiako, U., Marshall, A., Williams, T., Bititci, U., Mota, C., ... Stemati, T. (2019). A dimensional analysis of stakeholder saliences in the assessment of project outcomes. Production Planning & Control.

Dawson, I.G.J. (2019). Taking responsibility: Self-attribution for risk creation and its influence on the motivation to engage in risk management behaviours. Journal of Risk Research.

Crook, J., Bellotti, T., Mues, C., & Fuertes, A. M. (2019). Preface to the papers on ‘Credit risk modelling’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 182(4), 1139-1142.

Fraser-Mackenzie, P., Ma, T., Sung, M-C., & Johnson, J. E. V. (2019). Let’s call it quits: break-even effects in the decision to stop taking risks. Risk Analysis, 39(7), 1560-1581.

Hanoch, Y., Rolison, J., & Freund, A. M. (2019). Reaping the benefits and avoiding the risks: Unrealistic optimism in the health domain. Risk Analysis, 39(4), 792-804.

Loh, T. Y., Brito, M., Bose, N., Xu, J., & Tenekedjiev, K. (2019). Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic. Risk Analysis, 1-28.

Marshall, A., Ojiako, U., Wang, V., Lin, F., & Chipulu, M. (2019). Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 644-658.

Mitra, S., Chinthalapati, V., Clark, E., & McGroarty, F. (2019). Stock-ADR arbitrage: microstructure risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Sung, M-C., McDonald, D. C. J., Johnson, J.E.V., Tai, C-C., & Cheah, E-T. (2019). Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements. European Journal of Operational Research, 272(1), 389-405.

Zalata, A., Ntim, C., Choudhry, T., Hassanein, A., & Elzahar, H. (2019). Female directors and managerial opportunism: monitoring versus advisory female directors. The Leadership Quarterly, 1-59.

Selected papers published in 2018

Battarra, M., Balcik, B., & Xu, H. (2018). Disaster preparedness using risk-assessment methods from earthquake engineering. European Journal of Operational Research.

Brito, M., & Griffiths, G. (2018). Updating autonomous underwater vehicle risk based on the effectiveness of failure prevention and correction. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

Dawson, I. (2018). Assessing the effects of information about global population growth on risk perceptions and support for mitigation and prevention strategies. Risk Analysis.

Kunc, M., Harper, P. R., & Katsikopoulos, K. (2018). A review of implementation of behavioural aspects in the application of OR in healthcare. Journal of the Operational Research Society.

Lismont, J., Cardinaels, E., Bruynseels, L., De Groote, S., Baesens, B., Lemahieu, W., & Vanthienen, J. (2018). Predicting tax avoidance by means of social network analytics. Decision Support Systems, 108, 13-24.

Marshall, A., Ojiako, U., & Chipulu, M. (2018). A futility, perversity and jeopardy critique of risk appetite. International Journal of Organizational Analysis.

Marshall, A., Ojiako, U., Wang, V., Lin, F., & Chipulu, M. (2018). Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation. International Journal of Forecasting.

Ramoglou, E., & Tsang, E. W. K. (2018). Opportunities lie in the demand-side: transcending the discovery-creation debate. Academy of Management Review, 43(4), 815-818.

Restocchi, V., McGroarty, F., Gerding, E., & Johnson, J. E. V. (2018). It takes all sorts: a heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing. European Journal of Operational Research, 270(2), 556-569.

Costa Sperb, L. F., Sung, M-C., Ma, T., & Johnson, J. (2018). Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets: improving forecasts by accounting for environmental conditions. International Journal of Forecasting, 1-39.


Selected papers published in 2017

Brito, M. (2017). AUV development trends and their implications for risk management strategies. Underwater Technology, 34(3), 103-105.

Dawson, I., & Johnson, J. (2017). Does size matter? A study of risk perceptions of global population growth. Risk Analysis, 37(1), 65-81.

De Caux, R., Mcgroarty, F., & Brede, M. (2017). The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 468, 109-118

Dirick, L., Claeskens, G., & Baesens, B. (2017). Time to default in credit scoring using survival analysis: a benchmark study. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 68(6), 652-665.

Dohle, S., & Dawson, I. (2017). Putting knowledge into practice: does information on adverse drug interactions influence people's dosing behavior? British Journal of Health Psychology, 22(2), 330-344.

Katsikopoulos, K., Durbach , I., & Stewart, T. (2017). When should we use simple decision models? A synthesis of various research strands. OMEGA - The International Journal of Management Science.

Ma, T., & Mcgroarty, F. (2017). Social Machines: How recent technological advances have aided financialisation. Journal of Information Technology, 32(3), 234–250.

Mcgee, R., & Johnson, J. (2017). Everyone's a winner: The market impact of technologically advantaged agents. Economics Letters, 156, 95-98.

Mcgee, R. J., & Mcgroarty, F. (2017). The risk premium that never was: a fair value explanation of the volatility spread. European Journal of Operational Research.

Ramoglou, E., & Tsang, E. W. K. (2017). In defense of common sense in entrepreneurship theory: Beyond philosophical extremities and linguistic abuses. Academy of Management Review.


Selected papers published in 2016

Baesens, B., Bapna, R., Marsden, J.R., Vanthienen, J., and Zhao, J.L. (2016) Transformational Issues of Big Data and Analytics in Networked Business, MIS Quarterly.

Choudhry, T., Papadimitriou, F.I. and Shabi, S. (2016) Stock market volatility and business cycle: Evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests. Journal of Banking & Finance, 66, 89-101.

Dawson, I., Johnson, J.E.V. and Luke, M. (2016) One too many? Understanding the influence of risk factor quantity on perceptions of risk. Risk Analysis, 1-35.

Eross, A., Urquhart, A. and Wolfe, S. (2016) Liquidity risk contagion in the interbank market. Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, 45, 142-155.

Hsu, M-W., Lessmann, S., Sung, M., Ma, T., and Johnson, J.E.V. (2016) Bridging the Divide in Financial Market Forecasting: Machine Learners vs. Financial Economists. Expert Systems with Applications, 61, 215-234.

Ma, T., Tang, L., McGroarty, F., Sung, M., and Johnson J.E.V. (2016) Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices. European Journal of Operational Research.

Ullah, S., Harwood, I.A. and Jamali, D. (2016) 'Fatwa Repositioning': the hidden struggle for Shari'a compliance within Islamic Financial Institutions. Journal of Business Ethics.

Urquhart, A. (2016) The Inefficiency of Bitcoin. Economics Letters, 1-7.

Urquhart, A. and McGroarty, F. (2016). Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. International Review of Financial Analysis.

Van Vlasselaer, V., Eliassi-Rad, T., Akoglu, L., Snoeck, M., Baesens, B. (2016) GOTCHA! Network-based Fraud Detection for Social Security Fraud, Management Science.


Selected papers published in 2015 

Brito, M. and Griffiths, G. (2015) A Bayesian approach to predicting risk of loss during Autonomous Underwater Vehicle missions. Reliability Engineering & System Safety (doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.004).

Chipulu, M., Marshall, A., Ojiako, U. and Mota, C. (2015) Reasoned ethical engagement: ethical values of consumers as primary antecedents of instrumental actions towards multinationals. Journal of Business Ethics (doi: 10.1007/s10551-015-2994-5).

Choudhry, T. and Hassan, S.S. (2015) Exchange rate volatility and UK imports from developing countries: the effect of the global financial crisis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money (doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.004).

Dawson, I.G.J. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2015) Does size matter? A study of risk perceptions of global population growth. Risk Analysis (doi: 10.1111/risa.12576).

Fraser-Mackenzie, P., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2015) The prospect of a perfect ending: Loss aversion and the round-number bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.08.004).

Goodell, J.W., McGroarty, F. and Urquhart, A. (2015) Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert. International Review of Financial Analysis (

Gray, E., Jennings, W., Farrall, S. and Hay, C. (2015) Small big data: using multiple data-sets to explore unfolding social and economic change. Big Data & Society (doi: 10.1177/2053951715589418).

Ma, T., Tang, L., Mcgroarty, F., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2015) 'Time is money': costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices. European Journal of Operational Research (

Marshall, A., Ashleigh, M.J., Baden, D., Udechukwo, O. and Guidi, M. (2015) Corporate psychopathy: can ‘search and destroy’ and ‘hearts and minds’ metaphors from military strategy guide practical HRM solutions? Journal of Business Ethics (doi: 10.1007/s10551-014-2117-8).

Sung, M., McDonald, D. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2015) Probabilistic forecasting with discrete choice models: evaluating predictions with pseudo-coefficients of determination. European Journal of Operational Research (doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.068).


Selected papers published in 2014

Alsayed, H. and McGroarty, F. (2014) Ultra High Frequency Algorithmic Arbitrage Across International Index Futures. Journal of Forecasting (In Press).

Chipulu, M., Ojiako, U., Gardiner, P., Williams, T.M., Mota, C., Maguire, S., Shou, Y., Stemati, T. and Marshall, A. (2014) Exploring the impact of cultural values on project performance: the effects of cultural values, age and gender on the perceived importance of project success/failure factors. International Journal of Operations and Production Management , 34, (3), 364-389. (doi:10.1108/IJOPM-04-2012-0156).

Choudhry, T. and Jayasekera, R. (2014) Market Efficiency during the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from European Banks. Journal of International Money and Finance (doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.03.008 ). (In Press).

Dawson, I.G.J, Johnson, J.E.V. and Luke, M.A (2014) Using risk model judgements to better understand perceptions of synergistic risks. British Journal of Psychology, 1-23. (doi:10.1111/bjop.12059).

Dawson, I.G.J. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2014) Growing pains: how risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth. Risk Analysis (In Press).

Downing, M., Chipulu, M., Ojiako, U. and Kaparis, D. (2014) Advanced inventory planning and forecasting solutions: a case study of the UKTLCS Chinook maintenance programme. Production Planning & Control, 25, (1), 73-90. (doi:10.1080/09537287.2012.658451).

Fraser-Mackenzie, P., Sung, M. and Johnson, J.E.V. (2014) Toward an understanding of the influence of cultural background and domain experience on the effects of risk-pricing formats on risk perception. Risk Analysis (doi:10.1111/risa.12210).

Kuo, J-M., Ning, L. and Song, X. (2014) The real and accrual-based earnings management behaviors: evidence from the split share structure reform in China. The International Journal of Accounting (In Press).

Nguyen, T-D. (2014) A fast approximation algorithm for solving the complete set packing problem.European Journal of Operational Research (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2014.01.024). (In Press).

Portman-Smith, C. and Harwood, I.A. (2014) ‘Only as good as your last gig?': an exploratory case study of reputational risk management amongst self-employed musicians. Journal of Risk Research (In Press).

So, M.C., Thomas, L.C., Seow, H-V and Mues, C. (2014) Using a transactor/revolver scorecard to make credit and pricing decisions. Decision Support Systems, 59, 143-151. (doi:10.1016/j.dss.2013.11.002).


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